Roster consultant: Lead Impact Evaluation Researcher

I. Background
The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a multilateral fund created to make significant and ambitious contributions to global efforts to combat climate change. The GCF contributes to achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. In the context of sustainable development, the GCF aims to promote a paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways by providing support to developing countries to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience, while accounting for their needs and supporting particularly those that are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The GCF is governed by a Board composed of an equal number of members from developed and developing countries. It is operated by a Secretariat headed by an Executive Director.
The Independent Evaluation Unit (the “IEU” or the “Unit”) of the GCF is mandated by the Board under paragraph 60 of the Governing Instrument to inform its decision-making. The IEU has several objectives including to guide the GCF and stakeholders as a learning institution through providing strategic guidance; to conduct periodic independent evaluations of GCF performance to objectively assess the effectiveness and efficiency of its activities and provide evaluation reports to the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement through periodic reviews of the Financial Mechanism.
The IEU has a mandate for discharging both an accountability function and supporting a learning function. These are central to the GCF being a learning organization as laid out in its Governing Instrument and the Updated Strategic Plan for the Green Climate Fund 2024-2027.
For more information on the IEU, its mandate, and publications, please see the IEU website at https://ieu.greenclimate.fund.

The Fund seeks to engage two consultants to provide services for an initia 30 working days over a 9- month period.

II. Learning-Oriented Real-Time Impact Assessment (LORTA) programme
The use of theory-based counterfactual approaches that help to measure attributable causal change from climate interventions is relatively new. Such approaches, when embedded before interventions start, can help to prevent confounding factors, such as selection bias, which, if not addressed, can undermine the causal validity of evaluations. The IEU is conducting the multi-year Learning-Oriented Real-Time Impact Assessment (LORTA) programme not only to be able to keep track of GCF projects in terms of performance and results but also to enhance learning within the GCF and provide capacity-building in the area of impact evaluations. The primary objectives of LORTA are threefold.

• Advisory services: The IEU will provide advisory services and build capacity for conducting impact evaluation and impact measurement systems by employing state-of-the-art, theory-based, counterfactual methods to measure the causal change attributable to GCF investments.
• Capacity building: The IEU will build capacity within GCF-funded projects/programmes to design and embed real-time impact evaluations and measurement into funded projects/programmes that provide project teams and managers of GCF-funded projects high-quality data on the quality of implementation and likelihood of impact, while helping them to manage their projects/programmes and ensuring that attributable causal change of GCF investments is maintained,
• Results and Learning: The IEU will engage impact evaluation designs using theory-based counterfactuals to provide results of the GCF-funded projects/programmes and to inform about the implementation challenges and opportunities of the GCF-funded projects/programmes and the LORTA programme, as a learning organization of the GCF. The IEU will provide annual synthesized lessons learnt from the implementation of real-time measurement systems alongside the implementation of GCF-funded projects/programmes.

IEU’s LORTA programme uses international best practices in theory-based impact evaluations to build learning and measurement into GCF projects and programs. Funded projects and programmes acquire skills and competencies to incorporate these approaches into their designs and initiatives.

Envisioned from the start as a multi-year programme, the LORTA programme has engaged with around 50 GCF-funded projects who have benefited from the LORTA programme regarding the development and implementation of theory-based counterfactual evaluation designs as well as the baseline, midline, or endline data collection and analysis. To date, 29 projects have been onboarded into the LORTA programme and received technical assistance in conducting impact evaluation. In 2024, IEU will select additional projects to onboard into the LORTA portfolio at the same time as continuing to support existing projects.

III. Scope of Work
The Principal Investigator (PI) will serve as the lead researcher for impact evaluation(s) being implemented within the LORTA programme. Together with the LORTA team, the PI will be responsible for leading the development of the impact evaluation design, drafting of the Pre-Analysis Plan, and developing the questionnaire. The PI will specifically support the inception of impact evaluation design, in countries including but not limited to Brazil and Tanzania.
In this vein, the Principal Investigator is expected to contribute to the following activities:

(1) Impact Evaluation Inception Mission
The PI is expected to participate in the inception mission together with the LORTA team. The objectives of the inception mission are to (1) clearly understand the project operation in terms of each component of the project, eligibility criteria for selecting beneficiaries, and project implementation timeline; and (2) assess the feasibility of potential impact evaluation designs, including a randomized-controlled trial (RCT).
In this regard, the PI is expected to undertake the following tasks:
1. In preparation for the inception mission, the PI is expected to closely communicate with the LORTA team to (1) identify list of stakeholders that could be interviewed to better understand the project implementation and (2) draft a list of questions to be asked to different stakeholders, including project implementers, community leaders, and project beneficiaries.
2. In preparation for the inception mission, the PI is expected to review and identify any existing data sources, including administrative data set(s), that may benefit the impact evaluation, and request to the appropriate stakeholder(s) during the inception mission if needed.
3. During the inception mission, the PI is expected to support the interview of relevant stakeholders and support the preparation of any presentation materials if needed.
4. On the final day of the inception mission, the PI is expected to propose and advise on a preliminary experimental or quasi-experimental design for the impact evaluation(s) that conforms to rigorous methods while considering the operational constraints of the project team and country context.
5. After the inception mission, the PI is expected to regularly meet (online) with the LORTA team and the Accredited Entity (AE) to finalize the details of the identification strategy, data collection plan, and analysis plan.

(2) Designing the Impact Evaluation Framework
In consultation with the LORTA team and key counterparts, the PI is expected to design an impact evaluation framework that can rigorously measure the impact of the project(s) of interest. The PI will propose a preliminary experimental or quasi-experimental design for the impact evaluation(s) that conforms to rigorous methods while considering the operational constraints of the project team and country context.
1. Following the inception mission, the PI is expected to develop a Pre-Analysis Plan (PAP) that details the agreed upon theory of change, identification strategy, data collection and analysis plan, staffing, budget, and time frame.
a. The PI is expected to advise on and specify on the PAP the sample sizes required to estimate program impacts, as well as the sampling strategy. This will include (1) the outcome indicator(s) that are used to determine the sample size(s); (2) the minimum impacts that the study should be designed to measure; (3) the number of households (or community) in each of the control and treatment groups; and (4) determination of field-based sampling strategy in collaboration with the LORTA team and the AE.
2. The PI will seek feedback from the LORTA team on the PAP and revise the PAP accordingly based on the LORTA team’s feedback.

(3) Develop Data Collection Tools
Together with the LORTA team and the AE, the PI will identify key outcome indicators and other variables that will be measured as part of the impact evaluation. The PI will define the data sources and methods of data collection to adequately measure the impact of the program on key outcome indicators. This will include:
1. Identifying pre-existing data sources to understand the baseline characteristics of households in the location where the project is being implemented.
2. Reviewing questionnaires from other impact evaluation projects and adapting them to the country-specific context.
3. Participating in questionnaire pretesting.
4. Reviewing questionnaire with stakeholders.
5. Finalizing questionnaire based on feedback from pilots and discussion.

IV. Deliverables
The Principal Investigator is expected to deliver the following:
a. Inception mission report with preliminary design (5 days)
b. Pre-Analysis Plan outlining the evaluation framework and methodology (7 days)
c. Final Questionnaire (3 days)

V. Required experience and qualifications
• A Ph.D. in economics, social sciences, or relevant fields.
• Six years of experience in designing and conducting impact evaluations for agriculture, climate or development projects in the field.
• Strong quantitative and qualitative research skills.
• Experience in managing fieldwork and data collection teams.
• Excellent communication and presentation skills.
• Ability to work collaboratively with a diverse team.