Consultancy: Spatial Analysis of the Characteristics and Changes of Settlements in Kigali City

Tags: climate change finance English Environment
  • Added Date: Friday, 19 May 2023
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Terms of Reference

Spatial Analysis of the characteristics and changes of (informal) settlements in Kigali City

1. General information

1.1. Work description


A consultancy service to assess the urban dynamics of Kigali City by analyzing the development of informal settlement in the city over the last two decades and its related causalities. He or She will be responsible to assess the spatial changes of informal settlement and related causalities in Kigali over time and correlate these changes to the development of the policy, legal and regulatory frameworks that has directly and/or indirectly affected the changes detected over the last two decades. The consultant will also formulate strategic policy recommendations that will support the City of Kigali and the Ministry of Infrastructure in their effort to address the issue of informal settlement in Kigali City.

1.2. Consultant level


The consultant is expected to be a team that together brings urban economics and spatial analysis expertise.

1.3. Duration


The duration of this contract is six months.

1.4. Expected start date

The starting date of this consultancy is the date of the contract signature.

2. Project Background

Like most of Africaโ€™s cities, unplanned and informal settlements have been a significant source of concern in Kigali and across the nation. Kigali has been expanding at a rate of 4-7% each year. The expansion of informal settlements is attributed to the pursuit of job and business by citizens born outside of Kigali City, who account for up to 65% of inhabitants of Kigali's unplanned and informal communities. Furthermore, Rwanda's population density will rise from 415 people per square kilometer in 2012 to 1,000 people in 2050. According to Rwanda Housing Authority projections, the nation needs at least 5.5 million housing units, up from 2.5 million in 2019 to house a projected 22 million people in 2050. In addition to this gap, the issue of housing affordability remains high in Kigali City. Therefore, the issue of informal and unplanned settlements, as well as affordable housing, must be addressed to ensure the sustainable use of land resources as well as access to essential infrastructure such as water, electricity, and transportation, while protecting urban forests and wetlands.

In order to address this issue, the Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA), the Ministry of Environment (MoE), Rwanda Space Agency (RSA), Rwanda Housing Authority (RHA), National Land Authority (NLA) and City of Kigali (CoK) have jointly initiated a framework to help monitor and mitigate the proliferation of informal settlements in the CoK specifically and across the country in general, that are also encroaching urban forests and wetlands, and therefore leading to the increase of urban population in highly vulnerable areas. While the current system issuing building permits is being upgraded, various suggestions have been made to support the system to continue to improve settlement and housing in Rwanda through technology. In collaboration with RSA and MININFRA, with support of the World Resources Institute (WRI), an integrated approach is being conceptualized and set for development to ensure that non-compliant buildings are remotely inspected, and action taken accordingly. The later would prevent development in high-risk zones and protect urban forests and wetlands.

To address the challenges of informal settlements and concentration of population in high-risk zones effectively and sustainably, a clear understanding of the causalities of informal settlement development in the City of Kigali is crucial. Such an understanding also helps decision makers and the city leadership to understand the impact of all the efforts invested in addressing this issue over time.

Through its deep dive program, WRI is partnering with RSA and MININFRA to understand the urban dynamics of informal settlement in Kigali City for the past 20 years and also develop an automated system based on satellite imagery and machine learning that will optimize the management of the use of lands in the City of Kigali, as a first step. Within this partnership, WRI intends to support RSA technically and financially for the development and operation of such a system.

Within the deep dive program framework, the purpose of this consultancy is to assess the urban dynamics in the City of Kigali, by analyzing in detail the development of policy, legal and regulatory frameworks for the past 20 years to understand spatially the proliferation of informal settlement and its causalities in the City of Kigali.

3. Objectives of the consultancy

The main objective of this consultancy is to support the Government of Rwanda in its effort to address the issue of informal settlement and housing affordability, in the City of Kigali, by conducting a detailed evidence based scientific analysis of the spatial proliferation of informal settlement and peopleโ€™s concentration in high-risk zones and its related causalities from an urban dynamic, policy, legal and regulatory frameworks perspectives.

To achieve the main objective, the consultancy will:

๐Ÿ“š ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—š๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฎ ๐—๐—ผ๐—ฏ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ๐—ก ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฏ! ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿค ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—š๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ๐—ก ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฏ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—จ๐—ก๐—›๐—–๐—ฅ, ๐—ช๐—™๐—ฃ, ๐—จ๐—ก๐—œ๐—–๐—˜๐—™, ๐—จ๐—ก๐——๐—ฆ๐—ฆ, ๐—จ๐—ก๐—™๐—ฃ๐—”, ๐—œ๐—ข๐—  ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€! ๐ŸŒ

โš ๏ธ ๐‚๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž ๐˜๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐‹๐ข๐Ÿ๐ž ๐๐จ๐ฐ: ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ฅ ๐“๐ž๐œ๐ก๐ง๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐ž๐ญ ๐š ๐ฃ๐จ๐› ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐–!

Collect ground control points/ground truthing points in the city to facilitate informal settlement classification validation from satellite imageries. Produce a 20 years timeseries of high-resolution land use map of the City of Kigali clearly outlining informal settlements, deforestation, green area development and wetland encroachment. Conduct a detailed scientific literature review of the drivers of informal settlement in Kigali, including the role of the past and present policies, legal and regulatory instruments, guidelines, and directives that have directly and indirectly impacted the urban system in the City of Kigali for the past 20 years. Correlate the development of the policy and regulatory frameworks and the development of informal settlement in the City of Kigali for the past 20 years to understand the impacts on the urban dynamics in the City of Kigali. Formulate strategic policy recommendations to sustainably address the issue of informal settlement proliferation in the City of Kigali.

4. Scope of work

The consultant will focus his assessment on the City of Kigali and its premises (to be defined during the inception phase). During the period of this study the consultant will support in organizing consultation workshops to ensure the review process of the study is participatory. The consultant will prepare a comprehensive report incorporating all the analysis done and results produced. The consultant will also produce a policy brief that clearly articulate the policy recommendations from the study.

5. Expected deliverables

Inception report with a detailed work plan, methodology, scope, and approach

The inception report should provide details of the detailed methodologies; data collection process including what will be assessed and why, showing how each assessment question will be answered; proposed sources of data; and data collection procedures. The inception report should also include a proposed schedule of tasks, activities, deliverables, composition of team members with the lead responsibilities for each task well-defined, and table of content of the proposed technical report. The consultant will present the inception report to WRI Cities team and selected external stakeholders drawn from the institutions that will use the result of the assessment. Before embarking on the data collection and implementation work, the consultant must ensure all necessary feedback is incorporated in the revised inception report. The revised inception report shall serve as a document that guides the overall process of the assignment.

Draft report

After the data collection and analysis is completed, the consultant will submit a preliminary report with datasets and a validation workshop will be organized in which the consultant is required to present the main findings of the report to WRI and other relevant stakeholders and partners. Feedback on the preliminary report will be obtained during the validation workshop. Relevant staff both from partner organizations, WRI and respective cities government organizations will review the draft report and give feedback to the consultant to finalize the report.

Final report

The consultant is expected to submit a clean version of the datasets and final report that is enriched with feedback of the various stakeholders. The consultant will submit the final report in soft copy and all the produced shapefiles and data collected in a well-organized folder. The content and structure of the final analytical report with findings, recommendations, and lessons learned covering the scope of the spatial analysis should meet the requirements as stated in the ToRs.

6. Institutional arrangement and reporting

The consultant will report directly to the Country Lead for Urban Water Resilience Initiative and Head of Cities in Rwanda, WRI Africa.

7. Duration of the work

This assignment is expected to take six months to be completed from the date of the signature of the contract. However, the inception report is expected to be delivered in the first two weeks of the assignment, incorporating a detailed workplan of the assignment.

8. Required qualifications and experience

The consultant should be a local consultant based in Rwanda with the required experience working in urbanism sector in Rwanda.

Urban Economy:

PhD or Masterโ€™s degree in Urbanism, urban development, urban governance, urban economics, real estate finance and related fields. (Preferably PhD). Subject matter knowledge of urban development policy, urban system dynamics, urban economics, housing affordability or land related market, or professional experience at an urban planning and urban development policy institutions/research organization. Minimum 7 years of full-time work experience in urban planning, real estate finance, data integration, management, and analysis. Experience in designing and conducting independent assessment. Demonstrated previous experience on research, coordinating/leading original projects, programs, and urban planning activities. Demonstrated previous experience in collaborating with government institutions in Rwanda. Experience working with local government stakeholders preferred. Demonstrated creativity in conveying complex science to non-expert audience in compelling ways. Advanced analytical skills in both qualitative and quantitative data with proficiency in statistical packages and qualitative data analysis software, Preferably, machine learning technics. Demonstrated track record of accomplishments in advancing integrated urban planning, sustainable cities, and climate resilience etc. Exceptionally good communication and interpersonal skills. Detail-oriented and organized thinker who can juggle multiple, competing priorities. Proficient in writing and speaking English. Demonstrated ability to work both independently and as part of team, including actively contributing to team discussions. Ability to use time efficiently, and work under pressure to ensure the timely completion of project deadlines.

Spatial analysis:

Masterโ€™s degree in urban planning with experience on GIS/Remote sensing and modeling Minimum 5 years of full-time work experience in urban planning, spatial planning, spatial analysis or data integration, management, and analysis Strong technical skills in GIS and other geospatial analysis tools including experience in web application development with ArcGIS online or with any programming language Experience in project management and ability to lead, manage and implement data collection and management related projects Strong communication skills and experience collaborating with a diverse set of stakeholders at various levels. Experience in designing and conducting independent assessment mapping on Urban development, Urbanization, and climate change programs/projects Good understanding urban green areas, climate change, and community organizations. Good communication, analytical, drafting and document presentation skills. Experience working with local government stakeholders preferred Fluency in English and Kinyarwanda (added value) Demonstrated ability to work both independently and as part of team, including actively contributing to team discussions Ability to use time efficiently, and work under pressure to ensure the timely completion of project deadlines

9. Mode of payment

Upon validation of the inception report 30% Upon submission of the draft report 40% Upon validation of the final report 30%

10. How to apply


The consultant is encouraged to apply as a team to ensure all qualifications required are available. The application and negotiations will be done with the Team Leader, who should fulfill the following conditions:

The team leader should have successfully accomplished at least three research projects in public institutions evidenced with good completion certificates or publication. At least two good completion certificates should be accompanied with their respective contracts with reputable public institutions. RDB certificate of incorporation as consultant enterprise

Interested applicants can submit electronically to these addresses: [email protected] and [email protected], the following:

A technical proposal incorporating a methodological approach to conduct the assignment based on his understanding of the ToRs. The proposal should also incorporate the updates CVs of all the proposed team members. A financial proposal to conduct the assignment.

The applications are to be made before May, Friday, 26th, 2023 at 05:00 pm.

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