Consultancy in Support of Integrated Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Nile Dam Development on Sudan

Background :

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a hydroelectric dam currently under construction on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia. The dam is expected to affect downstream countries, particularly Sudan and Egypt, in terms of water availability and economic development. Sudan is particularly exposed to the impacts of GERD, due to its heavy reliance on the Nile River for food production, electricity generation, and brick production, while the river regularly causes devastating floods. Previous studies evaluated some of the impacts of GERD on Sudan in isolation from each other, but the major impacts of the dam on the Sudanese economy have not been assessed together. An integrated assessment of the impacts of GERD on Sudan is necessary to inform policy decisions and ensure sustainable development in the region.

Objectives:

This research aims to conduct an integrated assessment of the impacts of GERD on Sudan using river system and economy-wide modeling. Specifically, the research aims to assess, where possible, the potential overall economic impact of GERD on Sudan due to changes to:

· Hydropower production,

· Irrigation water supply,

· Recession agriculture,

· Fired clay red brick production on the riverbanks,

· The use of artificial fertilizers due to reduced natural nutrients, and

· Riverine flood occurrence

Depending on data and time availability, the goal is to include as many of these impacts as possible in the integrated assessment.

Methodology:

The research will use a combination of river system modeling and economy-wide modeling to assess the impacts of GERD on Sudan. A daily river system model will be developed for the Eastern Nile Basin, including the GERD and major water-related infrastructure in Sudan. The river system model will be able to quantify GERD's potential impacts on flow regimes, water availability, and hydropower generation. Secondary data on the impacts of GERD on sediment load, fertilizer use in agriculture, and brick production will be collected and analyzed.

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model will be developed to assess GERD's economic impacts on key sectors of the Sudanese economy. The CGE model will be configured to be recursive dynamic and shall include irrigation and recession agriculture sectors disaggregated by crops, a hydropower sector, brick production sectors disaggregated based on location (Nile and non-Nile), fertilizer production and imports, and a construction sector.

The river system model and the CGE model will be integrated based on a cascade structure, whereby the river system model is run first for each specific scenario, followed by the CGE model.

Deliverables:

1. Secondary data collected on river uses

2. Draft paper

3. Final paper

Level of Effort: 30 to 40 days

Required Qualifications:

· PhD in economics, hydrology, or associated field

· Familiarity with Sudanese water and agricultural systems

· Demonstrated experience with publications on water-food systems

· Experience with CGE modeling

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*We are unable to respond to every applicant individually, only the selected individual will be contacted*