NTA Demographic Dividend Analysis National Consultant, Amman, Jordan

The Position:

According to the 2024 United Nations World Population Prospects, Jordan’s population in 2025 is estimated at 11.5 million people, nearly double the population 20 years ago of 6 million people and is projected to increase to 15.4 million in the next two decades. The population is predominantly young, with children below 15 years making up nearly one in three (30%) of the population while the working age population (aged 15-64 years) and older population (aged 65+ years) comprise 65 and 5 per cent, respectively. In the next three decades, it is projected that children below 15 years as a proportion of the total population will drop by 10 percentage points, the proportion of the working age population will remain the same while the older population (65+ years) will nearly triple to 14 percent. These changes reflect dynamics in demographic parameters of fertility, mortality and migration. For instance, while 30 years ago, women gave birth to an average of 4.7 children over their reproductive life, the total fertility rate has nearly halved to 2.6 and is projected to drop further to 1.9 by 2055. In contrast, combined life expectancy for males and females has increased from 70 years in 1995 to 78 currently, with further projections of an increase to 83 in the next three decades. These demographic shifts have implications for sustainable development policies. 

Jordan’s demographic profile with a rising working age population and a declining fertility offers a potential for a demographic dividend. However, the demographic dividend does not come about automatically.  Beyond the simple increment in the number and share of the working-age population, the development and implementation of sound policies in education, health (including sexual and reproductive health) and the creation of an enabling macroeconomic environment that facilitates job creation and access to decent employment are necessary for the predominant working age population to provide a boost to economic growth and per capita income. 

UNFPA Jordan Country Office seeks the services of an individual consultant to lead a demographic dividend analysis using  the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology. This work will be undertaken in full collaboration with the Department of Statistics (DOS), Higher Population Council (HPC) and Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MoPIC) and relevant government ministries, departments and agencies. The analysis will be augmented by consultations with key national stakeholders to identify   policy actions  required of the government to maximize the economic benefits of the country’s current and future demographic profile. 

Applications should include a comprehensive curriculum vitae and at least one sample of a report or publication by the consultant on  demographic dividend analysis using the NTA approach.

How you can make a difference:

UNFPA is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled.  UNFPA’s strategic plan (2022-2025), reaffirms the relevance of the current strategic direction of UNFPA and focuses on three transformative results: to end preventable maternal deaths; end unmet need for family planning; and end gender-based violence and harmful practices. These results capture our strategic commitments on accelerating progress towards realizing the ICPD and SDGs in the Decade of Action leading up to 2030. Our strategic plan calls upon UN Member States, organizations and individuals to “build forward better”, while addressing the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on women’s and girls’ access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights, recover lost gains and realize our goals.

In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff, who embody these international norms and standards, and who will defend them courageously and with full conviction.

UNFPA is seeking candidates that transform, inspire and deliver high impact and sustained results; we need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them and who commit to deliver excellence in programme results.

Scope of work:

The demographic dividend refers to economic growth that can result from changes in the population age structure of a country. The decline in fertility rates can reduce dependency rates while the growing working-age population, if gainfully employed,  can boost economic growth through labor income, savings and investments.  The demographic dividend can also be enhanced through  women’s overall work participation and  involvement in economic activities. 

The NTA methodology facilitates the analysis of the link between changes in the population age structure and economic growth by examining how individuals produce (i.e. generate income), consume, save, or share resources across the life-course and the implications of these dynamics for economic growth. Results of the NTA analysis can be used for policy development to enhance the benefits of the demographic dividend based on a country’s current and forecasted population age structure.

This consultancy will undertake a demographic dividend analysis for Jordan using the NTA methodology by addressing the following objectives: 

This activity will have three components: 1) the development of an analytical  demographic profile of Jordan; 2) construction and analysis of NTA profiles  and demographic dividend for Jordan; and 3) development of a comprehensive policy brief based on the study findings. Each of these is described further below. 

Demographic profile: The demographic profile will provide the demographic and economic context for the analysis of Jordan’s demographic dividend. The analysis will review evidence on recent demographic trends in the country, as well as expected future trajectories, drawing from both national and international sources. Alongside this demographic analysis, the report will provide an overview of recent economic trends, highlighting the key challenges faced by Jordan’s policymakers in steering the country  to sustainable and inclusive development.  

Construction of National Transfer Accounts: NTA maps resource flows across the lifecycle at a given point in time within a particular society. The NTA provides a systematic and comprehensive approach to measuring the economic flows from a generational perspective”.  Individuals and households receive resources through a combination of their own labor, transfers from the state or other individuals or households, and asset income or dissaving. In turn, these resources can be consumed, transferred to others (including the state), or saved. These two sets of flows—inflows and outflows—must balance for each individual, each age cohort, and for society as a whole.

NTAs are constructed on the basis of both micro- and macro-data.  Patterns of resource flows across age—referred to as age profiles—are typically constructed using household survey data or administrative data (i.e. government data on particular public programmes). At the same time, NTAs are constructed to be consistent with national accounts (e.g. total public consumption spending) and other macro-level aggregates (e.g. total public consumption spending on secondary education from the national budget). This consistency with national accounts is a key strength of the NTA approach.

This analysis will focus on the lifecycle deficit and will provide estimates of public and private consumption, and labor income. With these two profiles and population projections, the economic support ratio, which is the ratio of total labor income to total consumption in a given year, will be calculated to provide  an estimate of the first demographic dividend.

As is standard, NTAs will be constructed for the full population. However, separate accounts by gender will be required. This will enable an analysis of gender differences in the economic lifecycle and the lifecycle deficit. Further, the analysis should simulate the impact of reducing gender inequalities within the labor market on the demographic dividend by making adjustments to the gender-specific labor income profiles.

The analysis should incorporate alternative population projections that differ in terms of the underlying assumptions in order to simulate the impact of these assumptions on the demographic dividend, with a specific focus on the timing and magnitude of the dividend. The World Population Prospects, 2024, for example, includes nine projection variants that differ in terms of their assumptions with respect to fertility, mortality and international migration. These variants are: low fertility, medium fertility, high fertility, constant fertility, instant replacement fertility, momentum, constant mortality, no change, and zero migration.  

Jordan’s economy is influenced by both in and outbound migration and related remittances. Subject to data availability, the NTA should assess the implications of migration and remittances to Jordan's demographic dividend, drawing from NTA constructed by other countries experiencing similar migration trends.  

Policy brief development: The findings of the analysis will be developed into a policy brief outlining options for optimizing the demographic dividend in Jordan in  light of the country’s long-term development aspirations. 

Capacity building as an integral component: The NTA analysis will be conducted in close collaboration with the DOS, HPC  and MoPIC and related government ministries, departments and agencies. Capacity building for government stakeholders on the NTA approach and its policy relevance, will be an integral part of this activity. As such, the implementation plan should outline capacity strengthening strategies in all phases of the project starting from the identification and preparation of required data, data modelling, analysis and interpretation, validation of results to the identification of policy recommendations.    

In undertaking this assignment, the consultant shall be expected to do the following:

Total: 30 Days  

Duration and working schedule:

The total duration of the consultancy will be for 30 Working Days and will run from 03 August 2025 to 31 December 2025
 

Place where services are to be delivered: 

The consultancy will be undertaken remotely, but with significant coordination and engagement with UNFPA, DOS, HPC and other relevant government departments and agencies. The consultant will make one visit lasting three working days to the country for the dissemination of results and validation of policy recommendations from the analysis. The timing of  the visit will be determined in consultation with the UNFPA Jordan and DOS.
 

Delivery dates and how the work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.): 

Demographic Dividend Report and Policy Brief developed, validated, finalized and shared with DOS and UNFPA Jordan and ASRO by 31 December 2025. To support this process, the milestones and deliverables are proposed as follows:

Milestones

Deliverables

Target Delivery Dates (timelines are indicative)

30% payment

(by 14 August, 2025 

30% payment 

(by 25 September, 2025) 

40% payment 

(by 24 December, 2025)

Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline:  

The consultant will work in close collaboration with the Population and Development Advisor/Specialist at UNFPA ASRO, UNFPA Jordan, DOS  and HPC to ensure the deadlines and contents of the deliverables meet the requirements.

Supervisory arrangements:  

The consultant will work under the overall guidance of Population and Development Advisor, UNFPA ASRO and International Program Coordinator, at UNFPA Jordan.
 

Expected travel:

The consultant will make one trip lasting three working days to Jordan for the dissemination and validation of study findings and policy recommendations.

Knowledge, Education, Language, Experience, and Other Requirements: 

Advanced post graduate degree in the field of relevance for the assignment: statistical sciences, demography, public health or other social sciences degrees.

UNFPA will provide the following: 

DoS will provide the following: 

UNFPA Work Environment:

UNFPA provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, integrity and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender parity in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. UNFPA promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for all regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of UNFPA's workforce - click here to learn more.
 

Disclaimer:

Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, visa issuance and other administrative requirements. 

UNFPA does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in connection with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts. 

Applicants for positions in the international Professional and higher categories, who hold permanent resident status in a country other than their country of nationality, may be required to renounce such status upon their appointment.