Modelling Expert – NDC 3.0 Development

Result of ServiceThe final deliverable of the modelling expert will be to develop and provide the analytical inputs, modelling outputs and scenarios, and technical documentation necessary to inform the NDC 3.0 aligned with the country’s LTS, ultimately contributing to a robust, data-driven, and nationally validated NDC 3.0 document for The Gambia, ready for submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat. Work LocationThe Gambia or regional presence Expected durationPart-time Duties and ResponsibilitiesTo remain aligned with a pathway in which the rise in global average temperatures stays below 1.5°C, countries are expected to submit the third generation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat before COP30 . The first Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement has highlighted the urgent need for greater ambition, with the objective of reducing global GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 and further by 60% by 2035 compared with 2019 levels and reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 globally. Objective: The objective of this assignment is to provide technical leadership in the development of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation sectoral scenarios to inform The Gambia’s NDC 3.0. This includes the design and implementation of a robust modelling framework, development of sectoral and economy-wide emissions pathways ensuring alignment with the LTS, identification of feasible mitigation options, and preparation of analytical inputs to support government review, stakeholder engagement, and validation of the mitigation targets for inclusion in the final NDC 3.0 document For all activities and deliverables, the modelling expert will coordinate and work closely with the Lead Coordinator consultant supporting the project. Outputs, activities and deliverables: The Modelling Expert will guide and contribute to the delivery of the following outputs: Output 1. Inception Report and Workshop • Activity 1.1 Contribute to the development of detailed work plan and stakeholder engagement plan for NDC 3.0 • Activity 1.2 Participate in the NDC 2.0 stocktake inception workshop (organized by CAA) to present and validate the NDC 3.0 work plan and proposed structure. Depending on the timing of the workshop, it may also serve as an opportunity to validate the baseline and key assumptions for the NDC 3.0 modelling work; otherwise, this validation will be conducted through the broader consultation process. Deliverable 1: Contribution to the Inception Workshop Report, focusing on elements related to the modelling work for NDC 3.0 – including a summary of the proposed modelling methodology, data requirements, stakeholder engagement plan, work schedule, specific sectoral questionnaires, and the validated structure of NDC 3.0. Output 2. Development and Validation of NDC 3.0 • Activity 2.1 Develop coherent NDC 3.0 (2035) – LTS (2050) scenario and mitigation and adaptation measures including: o Sub activity 2.1.1 Participate in the 2050 Pathways Project kickoff meeting on LTS-NDC 3.0 alignment and incorporate its recommendations into the NDC 3.0. o Sub activity 2.1.2 Contribute to the organization of four stakeholder consultations (central, regional, local) to gather inputs on NDC 3.0 scenarios and mitigation and adaptation measures. Note that costs related to booking venue and catering services for the 4 consultations will be covered directly by UNEP. o Sub activity 2.1.3  Using the LEAP model developed for The Gambia’s Long-Term Strategy and the model used for the previous NDC 2.0 as a starting point (noting that the modelling software for NDC 3.0 has yet to be confirmed), assess data availability and collect data inputs for the model, including: sector level emissions, mitigation potential and emissions growth factors (e.g. economic growth, population growth, electricity availability, levels of transport demand, land use change and forestry, waste, industry, etc.). Develop techniques for estimating the factors behind emissions growth where data is not available by extrapolation of past trends, interpolation to fill data missing in a sequence, and splicing or combining data sources.  Calculate base year emissions, base year emissions intensity for the target years and align these calculations with available standardized statistics such as national energy balances and/or national emissions inventories.  Update existing mitigation and adaptation measures for the 2035 horizon and identify new mitigation and adaptation measures for 2025-2035 period (to the extent possible, to be carried out during the NDC 2.0 stocktake validation meetings for synergies with stocktake of progress against existing measures). Adaptation measures will take into account planned adaptation actions and strategies, including those being developed as part of the ongoing National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process.  Run the model to develop baseline scenarios and sub-scenarios for the various sectors, using the 2010 GHG inventory as the foundation for establishing sector-specific emission trajectories.  Run the model to develop a mitigation scenario that outlines The Gambia’s pathway to 2035, aligning with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, giving consideration to running different emissions-reduction scenarios that identify the mitigation pathways for both the unconditional and conditional contributions. This scenario will incorporate mitigation measures across all NDC 2.0 sectors (AFOLU, Energy, Waste, Transport, IPPU) while exploring with the government the potential inclusion of additional sectors. The mitigation measures, while set for 2035, must align with the LTS to ensure they contribute meaningfully to the net-zero emissions target.  Define NDC targets, including key aspects such as the type of target, target year, reference point, scope, timeframe, and whether the targets are conditional or unconditional.  Assess data gaps and estimations and conduct quality assurance checks of the data used in the model, and sensitivity analysis to check the accuracy of results. Check results by comparing modelling outputs to any previous work undertaken in the country and/or models from similar countries. Validate the results of the mitigation scenario. o Sub activity 2.1.4 Contribute to the work on annual sectoral estimating costs for implementing updated mitigation measures. o Deliverable 2: Completed submission of elaborate excel files for data and methodology selection criteria report for GHG mitigation options for the sectors identified, along with all data sets collected, assumptions, default values used, reference materials utilized. o Deliverable 3: Contribution to a consolidated draft report of the NDC 3.0 focusing on elements of work relevant to the modeling results and choice of scenarios. The NDC 3.0 should contain updated and newly identified mitigation and adaptation measures through 2035, with estimated emissions reduction potentials and classification of actions as conditional or unconditional; BAU emissions projection, including a modeling dataset reflecting expected emissions under current policies; Baseline scenario dataset with detailed, sector-specific emissions data and assumptions; Summary of consultations with the 2050 Pathways and LTS teams, including agreed methodologies and validated assumptions used for the LTS and NDC 3.0 development; Integration of NDC 3.0–LTS alignment recommendations from the 2050 Pathways Project. • Activity 2.2 Contribution to a multistakeholder validation workshop and contribute to the finalization of the NDC 3.0 as it concerns the modelling components. The objective is to ensure that all aspects of the NDC are well-understood, aligned with national priorities, and meet the required ambition levels. Following the workshop, the consultancy will incorporate the feedback and finalize the updated NDC 3.0 document, ensuring that it is ready for submission to the UNFCCC and that it reflects a consensus of the stakeholders involved in the consultation process. • Deliverable 4: Updated LEAP modelling data set • Deliverable 5: Contribution to the final NDC 3.0 document • Activity 2.3 Contribute to the ICTU compliance as it relates to the modeling work as relevant. The information will be provided in the form of a table outlining all key information for the NDC 3.0 necessary for clarity, transparency, and understanding, which may include, as appropriate, inter alia, quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year), time frames and/or periods for implementation, scope and coverage, planning processes, assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals, and how the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in the light of its national circumstances, and how. • Deliverable 6: Contribution to the annex outlining all key information as per the ICTU guidelines. The Gambia submitted its second NDC to the UNFCCC in September 2021, covering the period 2021 – 2030, targeting a 49.7% emissions reduction by 2030 below business-as-usual The NDC 2.0 is supported by an NDC Update Report, an NDC Implementation Plan, and a costing. The country also submitted its Long-Term Strategy (LTS) for climate neutrality by 2050 and its first Biennial Update Report (BUR1) in 2024, with its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1) in preparation. With support from the NDC Partnership, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) through its Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), is assisting The Gambia in developing its updated NDC 3.0 for a 2035 horizon. This draws on a stocktake of the current NDC, supported by Climate Action Africa (CAA), and additional technical support from the 2050 Pathways Platform to align with the LTS. The updated NDC is expected to be submitted ahead of COP30. The aim of this project is to enable The Gambia to implement increasingly ambitious mitigation and adaptation commitments aligned with the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement objectives, while also promoting socio-economic development, inclusive growth, and a just energy transition. To support this effort, a Modelling Expert is being recruited to lead the modelling work for the development of the NDC 3.0, working closely with the Lead Coordinator, the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources (MECCNAR), national stakeholders and UNEP. The consultant will be responsible for leading technical work regarding the modelling to be undertaken and contributing to in-country stakeholder consultations. The Consultant shall actively engage with relevant government staff throughout the assignment to ensure knowledge transfer. The consultant/individual contractor will report to Clarine Ovando, Climate Advisor, UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre and the Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources, Copy the Director of the Climate Change Secretariate, MECCNAR in all correspondence. Qualifications/special skillso Bachelor’s degree in environmental management, Agronomy, Public Administration, Civil Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Economics, Political Science, or a related field (Required). o Postgraduate degree (Master´s) in Climate Change, Environmental Planning, Public Administration, Political Science, or a related field (Desirable). o Minimum seven (9) years of relevant work experience in working in the field relevant to climate change, climate change modelling, energy modelling, GHG emissions inventory (Required) with bachelor’s degree, or five (7) years with a master's degree. o Minimum four (6) years of relevant experience modelling GHG mitigation measures with different software such as LEAP, GACMO or other modelling software; NDC and/or LTS and/or national climate strategy design and development, including identifying and defining climate targets, defining mitigation and adaptation measures, and aligning with national policies and priorities, and experience in capacity building and knowledge transfer related to these technical areas. (Required). o Demonstrated GHGs emission simulation and modelling skills for GHGs measurement and management. Demonstrated experience in area-based or sectoral-based GHG emission (Required) o Demonstrated experience in preparing policy and strategy reports for national governments and in the technical review of national reports and relevant international documents (Required). o In-depth knowledge of The Gambia’s climate change regulatory and planning framework, including processes and initiatives at the national and local levels (Required). o Experience working with public institutions in The Gambia related to climate change planning (Desirable). o Relevant experience integrating gender considerations into formulating, planning, and implementing projects or public policies will be considered an advantage. This includes designing gender-sensitive methodologies to collect and evaluate baseline data, evaluate products, and monitor project results where appropriate (Desirable). Languageso English (Required) Additional InformationNot available. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.