Consultancy on advanced training on macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting for Tunisia

Result of ServiceThe consultant will deliver the following in a timely manner: • In- depth, 3-days training on macro-econometric modelling in Tunisia (full introductory training of the extended single-country WEFM and use of the interface for policy simulations). • Comments on interface-based policy simulations of Tunisia model. • Comments and feedback on the draft of the user-friendly manual for policymakers on how to use the model for the ex-ante simulations of fiscal policy reforms in Tunisia. • Substantive comments and feedback the draft of policy notes and recommendations based on modelling exercise results for Tunisia. Work LocationRemotely Expected duration2 months Duties and ResponsibilitiesBackground Macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting have become more important than ever for governments around the world to assess the impact of the global economic shocks on macroeconomic performance, develop alternate scenarios and forecasts to inform evidence-based policy responses to support their economies and societies. The challenge is more pressing for developing countries with limited fiscal space and high debt service burden. Structuring the government expenditures and debt in a way that maximizes the macroeconomic performance and development outcomes while minimizes debt and fiscal risks is a priority for these governments. Against this background, member states are putting up efforts in improving their capacity to develop macro-fiscal modelling tools for short- and medium-term forecasting and policy simulations. ESCWA has supported training and capacity development on macro-fiscal modelling and policy simulations in several member states, particularly focusing on enhancing fiscal space for financing social expenditures and sustainable development toward achieving their development priorities and visions. ESCWA has developed a Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting (MFMF) user-friendly interface for assessing policy scenarios and decision support of high-level officials. ESCWA’s MFMF tool is adopted from UN World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM), which is tailored for the single country and extended in scope to provide forecasts and policy simulations that support growth, enhanced social expenditures and fiscal sustainability. Following this background, ESCWA in cooperation with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) is implementing a capacity development project for targeted member states to help policymakers in improving their capacity to use macro-fiscal modelling and the modelling interface in the ex-ante assessment of the effect of debt and fiscal policy choices on macroeconomic performance and financing sustainable development aligned with their development priorities. Tunisia is one of the pilot countries for this training. An advanced training on macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting for Tunisia is planned in June 2025. One of the key outcomes of the training is the user-friendly interface that will support decision-makers to assess macroeconomic policy scenarios as they would not have to go through solving the systems equations, which will remain at the backend of the interface. General Objective The objective of this consultancy is to support training and capacity development on macro-fiscal modelling and policy simulations in Tunisia, particularly focusing on enhancing fiscal space for financing social expenditures and sustainable development toward achieving development priorities and visions, by providing policymakers from the Ministry of Finance and other relevant entities access to extended single-country WEFM through user-friendly interface as well as conducting an advanced training in Tunisia to expand their capacities. Duties and Responsibilities The consultancy is an extension to the on-going work on updating extended single country WEFM models. The consultant will work in close cooperation with the Project Manager and project team at ESCWA. The main duty of the consultant is to prepare and deliver an advanced training on macro-fiscal modelling and forecasting for Tunisia: In this context, the consultant will be required to: • Produce updates of the single country macro-economic model forecasts and simulations for Tunisia, in discussion with ESCWA staff. • Develop comprehensive training materials that will be used throughout the 3-day in-depth training workshop, including presentation slides and other resources as needed. • Lead and deliver the in depth, 3-days training on macro-econometric modelling in Tunisia in June 2025. • Advise and provide feedback on the preparation of policy notes and recommendations based on modelling exercise results for Tunisia. • Provide comments and feedback on the manual for policymakers on how to use the model for the ex-ante simulations of fiscal policy for Tunisia, including the user-friendly interface-based policy simulations for Tunisia model. Qualifications/special skillsA master’s degree or equivalent in economics, econometrics or related field is required. A first-level university degree in combination with qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree. All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed. A minimum of 15 years of progressively responsible experience in analyzing macroeconomic policy issues, particularly macro econometric modeling and forecasting exercises, is required. Publication in reputed journals in this field is desirable. Familiarity with the World Economic and Forecasting model is desirable. Knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries is desirable LanguagesEnglish and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat; and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA. For this position, fluency in English is required. Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas. Additional InformationNot available. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.