Consultancy - FGM Incidence Nowcasting Estimates Generation Consultant, Population & Development Branch, Technical Division

Tags: English
  • Added Date: Wednesday, 09 August 2023
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Purpose of consultancy:

The consultancy is located within the Population and Development Branch, Technical Division. The data expert consultant will support the FGM mapping project funded by the S.T. Buffett Foundation Funded Discretionary Funds.

The UN endorsed Data For Now initiative has underscored a pressing issue impeding progress towards the Agenda 2030 goals - the majority of our data is outdated, and numerous individuals are unaccounted for in our statistics. This inadequacy obstructs our understanding of crucial matters such as the number of children requiring immunizations, the population in need of immediate food aid, and effective strategies to halt deforestation and biodiversity loss. In order to realize the SDGs and ensure universal inclusivity, it's essential to have access to up-to-date data that accurately represents every individual on the planet. Fortunately, the modern surge in technological advancements, data production, and analytical methods equips us with the capacity to bridge these data gaps.

โ— We have now attained a significant accumulation of tested and proven methods and innovative solutions.

โ— An increasing number of governments and institutions are recognizing the significance of data and are advocating for access to novel tools and methodologies.

โ— Donors and investors are acknowledging the worth and potential returns of investments in data systems and capacity-building efforts.

There is a growing recognition of the value of nowcasting and forecasting in making near real-time estimates and projections of various indicators related to the SDGs. Nowcasting is defined as predicting the present, the near future and sometimes the very recent past of an indicator, oftentimes using auxiliary information and statistical/data science techniques. These techniques are important in monitoring progress towards the SDGs and making informed decisions for future interventions.

Success stories using nowcasting have primarily focused on short-term economic statistics, while other areas have received less attention. So far, nowcasting hasnโ€™t been applied to indicators that are core to the mandate of the UNFPA, including FGM incidence. This consultancy aims to address this gap by hiring a statistical expert in the areas of nowcasting and forecasting.

The main objective of this consultancy is to generate nowcasting estimates for FGM incidence, at both the national and sub-national levels, in UNFPA FGM joint programme countries. Using available FGM outcome data and estimates, the consultant will introduce nowcasting modeling where recent high resolution data are lacking, and produce subnational estimates of FGM incidence for the UNFPA FGM joint programme countries. This will provide timely and accurate data, which is essential for the effective planning and implementation of interventions to eliminate FGM.

The consultantโ€™s work will build on and complement UNFPAโ€™s analyses on FGM incidence risk measurement. See relevant documents as follows:

โ— UNFPA Knowledge Brief on FGM Incidence Risk Monitoring and Measurement

โ— Spatial Clustering in Temporal Trendsof Female Genital Mutilation Risk: Leveraging Sparse Data in Ethiopia,Kenya, and Somalia

โ— 2021 PLoS ONE Paper on FGM Incidence Risk measurement

The statistical expert will be responsible for:

โ— Reviewing the current practices in the nowcasting and forecasting of SDG indicators.

โ— Developing and implementing statistical models to nowcast FGM incidence, based on available data.

โ— Producing annual and subnational nowcast estimates for FGM incidence in each of the UNFPA FGM joint programme countries.

๐Ÿ“š ๐——๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—š๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฎ ๐—๐—ผ๐—ฏ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ๐—ก ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฏ! ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿค ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฟ ๐—ก๐—˜๐—ช ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐˜๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—š๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—จ๐—ก ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฏ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜ ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—จ๐—ก๐—›๐—–๐—ฅ, ๐—ช๐—™๐—ฃ, ๐—จ๐—ก๐—œ๐—–๐—˜๐—™, ๐—จ๐—ก๐——๐—ฆ๐—ฆ, ๐—จ๐—ก๐—™๐—ฃ๐—”, ๐—œ๐—ข๐—  ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€! ๐ŸŒ

โš ๏ธ ๐‚๐ก๐š๐ง๐ ๐ž ๐˜๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ ๐‹๐ข๐Ÿ๐ž ๐๐จ๐ฐ: ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ฅ ๐“๐ž๐œ๐ก๐ง๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ ๐ž๐ญ ๐š ๐ฃ๐จ๐› ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐”๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐–!

โ— Collaborating with UNFPA teams to integrate the nowcasting estimates into programme planning and monitoring processes.

The duration of this consultancy is 40 working days, spanning a duration of 2.5 months (7 August 2023 - 20 October 2023)

During the term of this consultancy, incumbent will be expected to deliver electronically as follows:

โ— Draft report on current practices in the nowcasting of SDG indicators.

โ— Draft statistical models to nowcast FGM incidence.

โ— Draft annual and subnational nowcast estimates for FGM incidence in each of the UNFPA FGM joint programme countries.

The consultant will report to Technical Specialist, under the overall supervision of the Chief, Population and Development Branch.

Expected Travel: None

Required Expertise and Qualifications

โ— Master's degree, Doctorate degree preferred (Post-graduate University Degree in epidemiology, demography, statistics, or other relevant field)

Knowledge and Experience:
Required Experience: 10 years of professional experience

The following skills are required for this position:

โ— Strong background in statistical analysis and modeling.

โ— Experience in working with complex datasets and incorporating auxiliary information.

โ— Knowledge of methodologies and tools for estimating and projecting indicators.

โ— Understanding of the dynamics and measurement of FGM incidence.

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