ETHIOPIA: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SPECIALIST (CONSULTANT)
Please note that deadline is based on Korean Standard Time Zone (KST, UTC+9)
INTRODUCTION TO GGGI
The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) is a treaty-based international, inter-governmental organization dedicated to supporting and promoting strong, inclusive and sustainable economic growth in developing countries and emerging economies. To learn more please visit about GGGI web page.
PROJECT BACKGROUND
The engagement of the GGGI in Ethiopia started in 2010 by supporting the Government of Ethiopia in developing its CRGE Strategy and advising on the implementation and integration of its concepts and objectives into the Countryโs Development Plans. GGGI has supported the implementation of the CRGE Strategy through deployment of Senior Advisors funded by GGGI at key CRGE sector ministries (MoF, MoP, MoA, EDRI, MoWE). GGGI has significantly contributed to the establishment and operationalization of the CRGE Facility and the successful mobilization of climate finance from GCF and AF. GGGI closely works with Ethiopian Institutions in the development of the Updated NDC, LT-LEDS, National Adaptation Program (NAP), National MRV Framework, and development of sector specific Climate Resilient Strategy documentaries. Furthermore, it has led the technical team, which oversaw the CRGE Implementation progress review work for the period 2011-2019[1].
The ongoing GGGI Ethiopia Country Planning Framework (2023-2027) is well aligned to the GoE climate change strategies and has strong relevance to the FCDOโs priorities. Some of the key targets of the Government of Ethiopiaโs planning framework include:
Assist the government to mobilize USD >150 million for climate change actions. Assist MOFโs accreditation upgrading to GCF from 50 to 250 million category. Create over 7,000 green jobs, benefit 80,000 people from improved climate adaptation. Restore and sustainably manage 20,000 ha of agricultural and 30,000 ha of forest landscapes. Mainstreaming gender equality and equity actions plans. Create modalities for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) awareness for green finance access.The Government of Ethiopia has long recognized climate change as one of the most critical threats to its sustainable development, peace, and security. Since 2011, the country has embarked on an ambitious journey to build a Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE), integrating poverty alleviation, sustainable development, and environmental integrity. Anchored in the principles of the CRGE Strategy, Ethiopiaโs vision aims to transition to a climate-resilient and low-carbon economy by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, as outlined in the countryโs Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) launched in 2023โ.
To operationalize this vision, Ethiopia submitted its Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC, targeting a 68.8% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 2010 levels by 2030. The implementation of the NDC and the wider CRGE goals requires an estimated USD 316 billion between 2021 and 2030โof which 80% is conditional on international climate finance supportโ.
To mobilize and manage the necessary resources, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) established the CRGE Facility as Ethiopiaโs national climate finance mechanism in 2013. The CRGE Facility has since played a central role in spearheading direct access accreditation to major international funds, including the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Adaptation Fund (AF), and has successfully mobilized over USD 270 million from international and bilateral partnersโ.
As part of its commitment to enhancing access to climate finance and delivering transformative projects, the MoF-serving as the GCF Accredited Entity (AE)-is preparing a medium-sized project titled: โEnhancing Climate Resilience and Energy Access in Rural Ethiopia Through Accelerated Deployment of Renewable Off-Grid Solutions.โ
This project is a response to Ethiopiaโs urgent climate vulnerabilities and persistent rural development gaps. Rural communities, representing over 80% of the population, face compounding challenges of energy poverty, water scarcity, food insecurity, and vulnerability to climate-induced disasters such as droughts and floodsโ. Over 58 million Ethiopians still lack access to electricity, and more than 60 million are without safe drinking water.
The project proposes a multi-sectoral solution, leveraging off-grid renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, clean cooking technologies, and sustainable water and natural resource management to build long-term resilience. It also contributes directly to Sustainable Development Goal 7 (affordable and clean energy), while reinforcing SDGs related to health, gender equality, food security, and ecosystem restoration.
Aligned with Ethiopiaโs CRGE Strategy, NDC, NAP, and LT-LEDS, the project will:
Expand access to clean energy in underserved rural communities through solar, mini-hydro, and biogas solutions. Integrate renewable energy into agricultural value chains and small businesses to enhance productivity and rural income. Improve water supply for domestic, agricultural, and livestock use using renewable-powered systems. Promote clean cooking alternatives to reduce health risks and biomass dependency. Strengthen policy and institutional capacity for climate and energy governance.To ensure the project meets the rigorous standards of the GCF and secures the required investment, a comprehensive Economic and Financial Analysis (EFA) will be conducted. This analysis will:
Assess the economic cost-effectiveness of the proposed interventions, Evaluate financial viability and sustainability, and Demonstrate alignment with GCF investment criteria, including impact potential, paradigm shift, and efficiency.The EFA will thus play a vital role in ensuring the proposalโs readiness for funding, supporting evidence-based investment decisions, and promoting the long-term sustainability of the project and its outcomes.
OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSIGNMENT
The primary objective of the consultancy is to hire a highly qualified consultant who conducts a comprehensive Economic and Financial Analysis (EFA) of the proposed GCF-funded medium-sized project. The analysis will provide robust evidence to demonstrate the projectโs cost-effectiveness, financial viability, and long-term sustainability, while ensuring full compliance with GCF investment criteria and guidance. The specific objectives of the assignment are:
Designing and executing a detailed economic analysis, including cost-benefit analysis (CBA), quantification of socio-economic co-benefits (e.g., job creation, health outcomes, avoided emissions, and enhanced productivity), and calculation of economic performance indicators such as Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). Developing a transparent financial model that assesses the viability and bankability of the project components. The model will include detailed cash flow projections, key financial indicators such as Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR), and financial NPV, while evaluating affordability and sustainability of services, particularly in rural and underserved communities. Ensuring alignment with the GCFโs investment framework, particularly criteria related to impact potential, paradigm shift, efficiency and effectiveness, financial needs of the recipient, and sustainability. This includes applying the principles of minimum concessionality, assessing leveraging potential, and providing justification for the chosen financing instruments (e.g., grants and concessional loans). Undertaking sensitivity and risk analyses to test the resilience of financial and economic returns under different assumptions and scenarios (e.g., fluctuating energy costs, climate risks, demand variability), and propose appropriate mitigation measures. Incorporating gender, social inclusion, and environmental co-benefits into the analysis, in line with the GCF's cross-cutting priorities, and Ethiopiaโs commitment to inclusive green growth. Documenting all assumptions, methodologies, data sources, and analytical processes in a manner consistent with GCF templates and expectations, ensuring the findings can be directly incorporated into Annex 5 (Economic and Financial Analysis) and related sections of the GCF funding proposal.The consultantโs analysis will be instrumental in building a compelling investment case that not only satisfies GCF due diligence standards but also enhances the proposalโs credibility with co-financiers, government stakeholders, and implementation partners. Ultimately, the consultancy will contribute to mobilizing the climate finance Ethiopia urgently needs to meet its NDC targets and realize a just, inclusive, and climate-resilient development pathway.
[1] This work was commissioned by the World Bank and conducted by Pegasys Global Consulting
SCOPE OF WORK
The Economic and Financial Analysis Specialist will lead the design and implementation of a comprehensive analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness, financial soundness, and alignment of the proposed project with GCF investment criteria. The analysis will support the development of a compelling funding proposal and provide critical inputs to decision-making by the GCF and other stakeholders. The Specialist is expected to work closely with the Ministry of Finance, the CRGE Facility, technical consultants, feasibility study team and GGGI experts throughout the process.
A. Economic Analysis
Conduct a detailed Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) for all project components (energy, water, agriculture, and capacity-building), quantifying both tangible and intangible economic benefits, including improved productivity, time savings, enhanced health outcomes, reduced GHG emissions, and ecosystem services. Estimate core economic indicators such as Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), applying a suitable social discount rate, as per GCF and national guidelines. Identify and quantify co-benefits, including: Substitution of diesel generators with renewable energy (and associated fuel cost savings), Reductions in indoor air pollution and related health costs, Time savings in firewood and water collection (particularly for women and children), Improved agricultural productivity and food security linked to energy-water-agriculture nexus interventions. Integrate gender-sensitive economic considerations, assessing how the project enhances womenโs access to energy and productive resources, reduces unpaid care work, and contributes to women's economic empowerment. Benchmark and contextualize results by comparing EIRR, NPV, and BCR against similar renewable energy, rural electrification, and water access projects in Ethiopia and comparable Least Developed Countries (LDCs), drawing from international databases, GCF-approved proposals, and peer-reviewed literature.B. Financial Analysis
Develop a robust financial model for the project, including detailed cash flow projections (revenue, operating costs, capital costs, financing structure), and present-value analysis. The model must be delivered in Excel with visible formulas and unlocked cells for transparency and validation. Assess financial viability of the project and key components using metrics such as Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR), Financial NPV, and Payback Period, under both base and stress-case scenarios. Evaluate cost-effectiveness and financial leverage, calculating key ratios such as GCF cost per tonne of COโeq avoided, cost per beneficiary, and co-financing ratio, in accordance with GCFโs efficiency and effectiveness criteria. Conduct rigorous sensitivity analysis, testing how changes in key assumptions (e.g., capital costs, electricity tariffs, system maintenance costs, water yield, usage rates) affect the financial viability and resilience of the project. Analyze long-term financial sustainability, including: Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for installed systems (e.g., solar mini-grids, water pumps, biogas digesters), Affordability for end-users and revenue generation potential through tariff schemes, productive uses, or government support, Institutional capacity for financial management and risk mitigation.C. Compliance with GCF Investment Criteria
Align the economic and financial analysis with GCFโs six investment criteria, with specific focus on: Impact potential (emissions reductions and climate resilience benefits), Paradigm shift potential (catalyzing market transformation, policy and technology shifts), Sustainable development potential (job creation, environmental co-benefits, gender equality), Efficiency and effectiveness (value-for-money, financial soundness), Needs of the recipient (considering Ethiopiaโs LDC status and climate vulnerability), Country ownership (integration with national strategies and stakeholder engagement). All methodologies and data sources used, Assumptions (technical, economic, demographic, climate), Analytical processes and results (tables, graphs, sensitivity tests), Narrative summaries suitable for direct inclusion in Annex 5 (Economic and Financial Analysis) and other relevant parts of the GCF funding proposal. Provide robust justification for financing structure and concessionality, demonstrating why grant and/or concessional loan instruments are required to unlock transformative impacts and ensure affordability in low-income rural settings. Prepare a clear and comprehensive analytical report, documenting:
DELIVERABLES
Deliverable
Description
Inception Report
A detailed inception report outlining the consultantโs approach, methodology, tools, data sources, work plan, and timeline for completing the assignment. It will include a stakeholder engagement plan, risks and mitigation measures, and an annotated outline of the expected reports. The inception report will be submitted within the first two weeks of engagement and serve as the foundational roadmap for the consultancy.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Report
A standalone report detailing the economic analysis of the project, including quantification of direct and indirect benefits, estimation of the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Economic Net Present Value (NPV), and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR). The report will also highlight socio-economic and environmental co-benefits, disaggregated (where possible) by gender and other social variables, and compare outcomes against benchmark projects.
Financial Model
A dynamic and transparent financial model developed in Excel format, with unlocked cells and fully visible formulas. The model will provide detailed financial projections, including revenue streams, O&M costs, capital investments, discounting, and scenario testing. It will be user-friendly and structured to accommodate future updates and validation by third-party reviewers.
Financial Analysis Report
A comprehensive report assessing the projectโs financial viability and sustainability. It will include key metrics such as Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR), Financial Net Present Value (NPV), cost-effectiveness indicators, co-financing ratios, and minimum concessionality justification. The report will also present results of sensitivity analyses under various risk scenarios.
Draft Economic and Financial Analysis (EFA) Report
An integrated draft report combining the economic and financial analyses, structured in line with the Green Climate Fundโs Investment Criteria. The draft will provide an in-depth narrative, tables, and figures explaining the methodologies, results, and how the project meets GCFโs expectations on impact potential, paradigm shift, efficiency, and effectiveness.
Final Economic and Financial Analysis (EFA) Report
The final version of the integrated analysis report, revised based on comments and inputs from the Ministry of Finance (MoF), GGGI, and other stakeholders. It will address all GCF documentation requirements and will be ready for submission as Annex 5 of the GCF Funding Proposal.
Presentation of Findings
A professionally designed PowerPoint presentation summarizing the key findings, methodologies, conclusions, and recommendations from the economic and financial analysis. The presentation will be delivered to MoF, GGGI, project partners, and stakeholders in a validation workshop or technical meeting. It should facilitate discussion, feedback, and capacity building.
PAYMENT SCHEDULE
Key Deliverable
Payment Milestone
Percentage of Total Payment
Inception Report: Detailed methodology, work plan, and timeline for the assignment.
Upon submission and approval of the Inception Report.
20%
Draft Economic and Financial Analysis Report: Includes cost-benefit analysis, financial modeling, and sensitivity analysis.
Upon submission and approval of the Draft Report.
30%
Final Economic and Financial Analysis Report: Addresses stakeholder feedback, aligns with GCF Investment Criteria, and includes unlocked financial models.
Upon submission and approval of the Final Report.
40%
Presentation of Findings: Deliver a presentation to stakeholders, summarizing the analysis and key results.
Upon delivery of the presentation and incorporation of final feedback.
10%
EXPERTISE REQUIRED
Education:
A minimum of a Masterโs degree in Economics, Agricultural Economics, Finance, Development Economics, Business Administration, or a closely related field from a recognized institution. Additional training or certification in climate finance, project finance, or cost-benefit analysis is highly desirable.Professional Experience:
A minimum of 15 years of progressively responsible experience in economic and financial analysis, with a strong track record of applying these skills in climate change, renewable energy, water access, and rural development projects. Demonstrated experience in preparing economic and financial analysis for international climate finance institutions, particularly for proposals submitted to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), Adaptation Fund (AF), or bilateral donors. Proven ability to develop GCF-compliant financial models and annexes, and to align analyses with the GCFโs investment criteria, especially in areas such as cost-effectiveness, minimum concessionality, financial sustainability, and paradigm shift potential. Familiarity with public and private sector financing instruments, including grant, concessional debt, and blended finance modalities. Hands-on experience using financial modelling software and advanced Excel-based tools, with proficiency in scenario analysis and sensitivity testing. Experience working in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) or Sub-Saharan Africa, preferably in Ethiopia, with an understanding of local institutional, regulatory, and economic contexts.Skills and Competencies:
Advanced quantitative and analytical skills, including financial forecasting, risk assessment, and return-on-investment analysis. Strong competence in preparing well-structured, high-quality reports that meet the documentation standards of multilateral climate funds. Deep understanding of Ethiopiaโs climate and development policy frameworks, including: The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy The Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) The Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) GGGI will provide transportation and DSA for authorized travels. Ability to integrate gender and social inclusion considerations into economic and financial analysis, consistent with GCF policies and safeguards. Excellent interpersonal skills with demonstrated ability to work collaboratively in multidisciplinary and multicultural teams, including government officials, donors, consultants, and civil society stakeholders. Strong written and verbal communication skills in English; knowledge of Amharic or other local languages is an asset.
ADMINISTRATIVE INFORMATION
Confidentiality
The consultant shall maintain confidentiality and not disclose any proprietary or confidential information related to the consultancy or the Government without prior written consent.
Evaluation Criteria
Upon the advertisement of the Procurement Notice, qualified Individual consultant is expected to submit both the Technical and Financial Proposals. Accordingly, the consultant will be evaluated based on Cumulative Analysis as per the following conditions:
Responsive/compliant/acceptable as per the Instruction to Bidders (ITB) of the Standard Bid Document (SBD), and Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation. In this regard, the respective weight of the proposals are: Technical Criteria weight is 70% Financial Criteria weight is 30% Child protection โ GGGI is committed to child protection, irrespective of whether any specific area of work involves direct contact with children. GGGIโs Child Protection Policy is written in accordance with the Convention on the Rights of the Child.