Consultancy analyzing how market conditions affect MPCA outcomes in Sudan

Description

Project Location(s): Remote Organization Background Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Mercy Corps’ Sudan crisis response seeks to meet the humanitarian needs of vulnerable Sudanese and other conflict-affected people across the country. The Cash Consortium of Sudan (CCS) is a collaborative platform to advance a progressive vision of the potential of cash assistance to transform humanitarian response and recovery in partnership with vulnerable conflict-affected populations. The CCS was established in 2023 and is led by Mercy Corps, building on its global experience and learning on leading cash consortia in multiple country contexts, as well as general expertise in cash coordination and breadth of technical resources. International partners include Acted, CARE, CORE, the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Concern, GOAL and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), each of which bring strong cash and complementary technical competencies, as well as expansive operational coverage in Sudan. The CCS also includes twelve Sudanese NGOs as partners in alignment with global aid sector commitments to enhance the prominence of local actors in driving humanitarian response and recovery. IMPACT is a non-implementing partner dedicated to Monitoring, Evaluation, Research and Learning strengthening. IMPACT will support quality data systems, and an objective evidence base that will be essential to CCS’ accountability and adaptive management to refine programming approaches to enhance impact as the Sudan crisis context evolves. The CCS will work closely with other consortia and actors in Sudan to deliver an effective CVA response for communities affected by the crisis. Project Background The Cash Consortium of Sudan (CCS) implements Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance (MPCA) across all states of Sudan in a highly volatile conflict and displacement context. While cash assistance is widely recognized as an effective modality, its impact depends in part on households’ ability to convert transfers into welfare gains through access to functioning and responsive markets. Recent spatial analyses of rural, intermittent markets in Sudan, using the same remote-sensing dataset proposed for this study, indicate that markets have largely continued to function despite widespread violent conflict, displacement, and economic disruption. Satellite-derived measures of rural market activity show that while many markets experience short-term declines around conflict events, only a small fraction exhibit prolonged or permanent closure. Instead, most markets display fluctuations in activity over time rather than wholesale collapse, with evidence of rebound and adaptation following localized shocks. In several areas, market activity has returned to or exceeded pre-conflict baselines, reflecting shifts in population, trade routes, and localized demand, particularly in rural areas absorbing displaced populations. These patterns suggest a degree of market resilience and adaptation, even as volatility, supply constraints, and price pressures remain acute. Importantly, the persistence of market activity does not imply that markets function uniformly well, but it does indicate that many households retain at least partial access to goods and services, and that variation in market conditions across localities may meaningfully shape how MPCA translates into welfare outcomes. In this context, CCS seeks to examine the relationships between market activity and MPCA. The findings will inform donor engagement, program design, and strategic decisions around layering MPCA with market support interventions. The study is intended not only to establish whether and how rural market conditions shape MPCA outcomes, but also to generate early insights to inform CCS’s economic/business group (EBG) decisions on where, when, and what kinds of market support activities may be most relevant. If possible, the analysis will help flag localities where outcome–market mismatches suggest trader-side constraints or other opportunities for targeted market strengthening. Objectives The consultant will deliver a rigorous, policy-relevant analysis addressing the following questions:

1. Do MPCA outcomes vary systematically across localities with different levels and patterns of rural, intermittent market activity, to include remotely observed presence of market actors, volatility in market activity, post-shock recovery patterns, or proximity to large market hubs?
   1. Does MPCA appear to be more effective in contexts with higher pre-existing rural intermittent market activity, and if so, what implications exist for the design and delivery of market strengthening activities?
      1. Does market functioning improve in areas following MPCA distribution, reflecting demand-side effects?
         1. What do various patterns of market activity and MPCA outcomes imply for the design and delivery of market-based support?
            • For example, should localities be identified where MPCA outcomes are weak despite persistent market activity, this may point towards trader-side constraints that can be addressed by CCS (liquidity stock, transport). Conversely, in contexts where market activity is low but MPCA outcomes are still relatively strong, this may imply that market support may be less urgent or relevant. A cross-cutting objective is to generate preliminary, evidence-based signals on where market support interventions (e.g., liquidity support, transport facilitation, trader engagement) may be most warranted by identifying mismatches between market activity patterns and MPCA outcome changes.