Spatial Analysis and Land Use - Consultant

Terms of Reference

Supporting Nakuru City, Nakuru County to develop a spatial analysis and land use management plan

Institution overview

The World Resources Institute (WRI) is a global research non-profit organization established in 1982. The organization has been working in Africa for more than 30 years, supporting local partners and African governments to advance forest protection, landscape restoration and sustainable cities. Our vision for Africa is an inclusive transformation so that Africa’s people and landscapes can flourish. WRI Africa generates actionable knowledge across three strategic pillars: Vital Landscapes, Thriving and Resilient Cities, and Institutional and Economic Transformation. The goal of the Vital Landscapes pillar is to revitalize and protect landscapes for people and the planet in four programmatic areas: Food, Restoration, Water and Forests. Because Africa’s population will continue to grow rapidly in the next decades, and climate change will remain an obstacle for development, the vital landscapes pillar aims to build the resilience of our natural ecosystems so that they can continue to provide vital ecosystems services - food, water, carbon sequestration and climate regulation sustainably. The pillar aims to catalyse comprehensive transformation of African food systems, so that the way we produce, transport, store, process, trade and consume food is done in such a manner that protects the environment and guarantees human health and well-being.

The Food and Land use (FOLU) Kenya Country platform, launched in 2022, is part of the FOLU global coalition which aims to shape countries’ Food and Land Use systems to ensure sustainability. FOLU Kenya is focused on: adopting healthier diets, promoting regenerative agriculture, preserving and restoring natural ecosystems, reducing food waste, whole food systems transition coordination and planning while integrating gender and youth perspectives. FOLU recognizes the urgency to catalyse food system transformation and is actively engaged in supporting science-based solutions to foster a shared understanding of the issues at hand. WRI Africa in collaboration with FOLU partners (AGRA, GAIN and SDSN are supporting national and county-level efforts to accelerate and increase capacities for policy-driven problem-solving, (spatial) planning and implementation toward sustainable agriculture, food systems and land use management.

Assignment background

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes have significant implications on food security and environmental sustainability. Rapid urbanization, deforestation, and conversion of agricultural land into settlements have contributed to environmental degradation and food insecurity. Understanding these changes is critical for sustainable land use planning and policy development.

According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs - DESA (2018), by 2050 the number of urban dwellers is expected to rise by 2.5 billion with nearly 90% of this growth happening in Africa and Asia. By 2050, Africa’s cities are projected to be home to nearly 60% of the continent’s population with critical environmental, climate change and food insecurity challenges. This is heralded by an already evident emergence of approximately 4500 new cities in Africa between 1990 and 2015 (Organization of Economic co-operation and Development - OECD, 2022). Urbanization has significant impacts on urban environments and ecosystems. Understanding the complexities of urban ecosystems from the perspectives of land use and urban land cover changes is critical in addressing the triple effect of urbanization, climate change and food security. Urban land-cover change threatens ecosystem productivity and environmental quality through loss of habitats, vegetation and biodiversity and rising carbon storage (Seto, K. C., et al. (2011).

Project Purpose

Kenya has been experiencing rapid land use transitions characterized by increasing conversion of agricultural and forested land into urban settlements. This transformation has led to significant consequences on food security and environmental sustainability. The associated agricultural land loss has continued to threaten food production, resulting in crop yields reduction and increasing dependency on food imports. This has in turn exacerbated food insecurity, particularly for vulnerable populations. Simultaneously, environmental degradation caused by deforestation, soil erosion, and water resource depletion has led to declining ecosystem services, loss of biodiversity, and worsening effects of climate change. Despite various policy interventions, there remains a critical gap in empirical studies that assess the extent and specific impacts of LULC changes on food security and environmental sustainability. This research seeks to bridge this gap by conducting a detailed analysis of these changes and proposing strategies for sustainable land management. The study seeks to analyze LULC changes across selected geographical locations in Kenya and their impacts on food security and environmental degradation.

Project Justification

Land remains a critical resource for development, agriculture, biodiversity, settlement and climate resilience. However, the ecological integrity and food security in many parts of Kenya remain under threat due to increased pressure from rapid population growth and urbanization. Other incident pressures emerge from climate change, land degradation, unplanned and poorly coordinated property development, urbanization and unsustainable agricultural practices. Therefore, in order to ensure long-term resilience of food systems, strategic land use planning, sustainable agriculture and land management are essential remedial initiatives. They serve to balance socio-economic development and environmental conservation.

In this circumstance, spatial analysis to monitor land use dynamics and specifically diminishing environmental and agricultural ecosystems is necessary. It also helps in mapping areas that are prone to degradation and pressure. This analysis relies on tools such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing. It is a critical in guide to evidence-based policy, sustainable land use planning and management strategies. The integration of these approaches with participatory processes and planning frameworks results in more sustainable, equitable and resilient land use/management strategies. Such is the backdrop of rapid urbanization, increased environmental and land degradation and pressure on agricultural resources for this study. On this premise, this project aims at leveraging spatial analysis tools –GIS and remote sensing as well as the resulting policy insights to guide evidence –based spatial planning and sustainable agriculture and land management strategies.

Project Objectives

The study seeks to analyze LULC changes, vegetation condition and land degradation in Nakuru County, Kenya specifically focusing on the city and their impacts on food security and environmental degradation. The study aligns with CAADP’s emphasis on efficient land utilization and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, making Nakuru an important focus for guiding land management decisions that protect food systems, food security, and rural livelihoods. Following its recent elevation to Kenya’s fourth city, Nakuru city presents a dynamic and rapidly evolving urban-agricultural landscape, making it an ideal case study to analyze the LULC changes and the impacts on food systems and environmental degradation. Further, Nakuru City sits at the intersection of growing urban expansion and productive agricultural zones, with accelerated urban sprawl and increasing pressure on prime agricultural land and natural ecosystems. Other guiding factors in choice of Nakuru City includes:

1. The highland city’s vulnerability to both drought and flooding, Nakuru offers a strategic platform and opportunity to apply climate-smart spatial planning approaches;
2. The city’s significant loss of vegetation, soil erosion, and land degradation, especially along key ecological zones such as the Lake Nakuru catchment; and
3. Finally, given its manageable size, diverse landscape, and rapid transformation, Nakuru serves as a model for replication in other fast-growing urban centers. The findings of this study will inform urban-rural linkages, land use governance, and policy integration, as envisioned under CAADP Pillar IV and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

   Specific Objectives

   The consultancy aims to:

   i. To analyze the patterns and trends of LULC changes in Nakuru City, in Nakuru County, Kenya

   ii. To evaluate the effects of LULC changes on environmental degradation including; vegetation loss, soil erosion and land degradation in Nakuru City, Kenya.

   iii. To analyze the impact of LULC changes on food security in Nakuru City, Kenya

   iv. To develop recommendations for the integration of sustainable spatial land use planning and management strategies.

   The assignment

   Scope of work, activities, and Tasks

   To achieve the assignment’s objectives, the firm will engage in the following activities

   a) Spatial Data Collection and Literature Review to acquire satellite imagery and relevant spatial datasets, gather and compile existing land use and zoning plans.

   b) GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis to map the existing/current land use including agricultural land and urban growth/expansion. Assessment and documentation of the dynamics of land use changes, conversion of agricultural land to other uses, property development trends and environmental impact zones.

   c) Thematic Analysis to assess the main drivers of land use changes in the study areas and evaluate environmental suitability, land productivity, and food security implications.

   d) Identification of challenges and barriers to sustainable agriculture and land use planning and management

   e) Dissemination: Preparation of a presentation desk for stakeholder validation workshops.

   Key Tasks:

   • Literature Review, Gap Analysis and preparation of inception report
   • Project set up-project planning and field logistics
   • Data acquisition and processing
   • Land cover mapping
   • Field work for ground trothing and verification
   • Interviews and Stakeholder engagement
   • Field data integration and report writing

     Expected Outcomes

     The key deliverables from this consultancy are as follows:

     • Inception Report: A draft inception report to be submitted 15 days after the acceptance of the assignment detailing how the consultant intends to carry out the assignment for approval by FOLU Kenya Secretariat;
       • A Progress report: To be submitted to FOLU Kenya not later than One and Half months (TBC) after the submission of the Inception Report. Detailing data acquisition process, imagery collection from 2015 -2024, data processing and progress on field work.
         • A Draft report: To be submitted to FOLU Kenya not later than 2 weeks (TBC) after the submission of the progress Report. Detailing LULC Maps, change detection maps, land degradation maps, progress on data collection, data analysis and report writing
           • Final Report: Finalized consolidated report of the synthesis of findings, recommendations, and strategic roadmap for intervention, incorporating feedback from stakeholders and addressing any comments or concerns raised during the consultation process. To be submitted 15 days after receipt of feedback from FOLU Kenya.

             Deliverables

             • Inception report indicating the methodology, tools, work plan and budget
             • GIS Data Layers and Thematic Maps
             • Time series spatial analysis report indicating trends in land use changes and hotspots
             • Policy report supported by pertinent policy briefs on sustainable environmental and food systems, spatial planning and land management