National Consultant to Analyze Inequality in Albania

Result of ServiceDeliverables 1. Inception Report – Methodology, data sources, timeline, and workplan 2. Draft Analytical Report – Key findings, tables, charts, spatial maps 3. Interview Guide (Annex) – Semi-structured guide and sampling frame (max 3 pages). 4. Qualitative Findings Note (Annex) – 4–6 pages summarizing themes from KIIs (anonymized), triangulation with quantitative results, and implications for recommendations. 5. Final Report – Revised version with executive summary and recommendations 6. Presentation Deck – Summary of key findings and visuals 7. Policy Brief – Two to three-page summary for decision-makers 8. Tracking Roadmap: Annual Tracking & Twinning Roadmap (2 pages) – Indicator set, update cadence, governance, and 1–2 twinning options with contact pathways. All outputs must include clearly cited sources, transparent methodologies, and accessible visuals (charts, graphs, and maps). Supervision and Coordination The consultant will be supervised by the Economist of the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office and work in close coordination with INSTAT. Other UN agencies (e.g., UNDP, UNICEF) may contribute technical inputs as relevant. Work LocationTirana Expected duration20 Oct - 20 Dec 2025 Indicative Timeline: o Month 1: Inception report, data preparation, macro analysis, discussion with INSTAT on micro-data access and preparation of statistics, developing the Interview Guide; schedule KIIs; o Month 2: Microdata analysis and drafting of core sections, conducting KIIs and integrate insights into draft; o Month 3: Finalization including Qualitative Findings Annex, stakeholder consultations, presentation, preparation of the Tracking Roadmap. Duties and ResponsibilitiesBackground Albania has experienced sustained economic growth in recent years, with GDP per capita rising from $6,396 in 2021 to $9,598 in 2024. Yet, beneath the national progress underlying regional and socio-economic disparities, exist and risk widening. Rapid wealth accumulation and high-end development in Tirana and the beach-front ‘Riviera’ contrast with underinvestment and persistent poverty in rural and mountainous areas. These inequalities risk undermining inclusive growth, social cohesion, and the long-term stability of Albania’s sustainable development. To support policy dialogue, Albania’s EU accession progress and SDG implementation, the UN in Albania is commissioning a deep-dive paper on income and wealth inequality. The analysis will also support progress under EU accession Cluster 2 on social policy and employment. Access to underutilized microdata is key, which could significantly enhance the understanding of inequality dynamics. The paper would also examine poverty and middle-class dynamics and its role in sustaining growth and societal stability. The assignment will also review methodological guidance from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and UN DESA on inequality measurement, with a view to aligning the approach and building on existing best practices. The assignment will complement quantitative analysis with a focused qualitative component (key informant interviews) to capture policy design nuances, lived experiences of vulnerable groups, and implementation bottlenecks that are not observable in survey microdata. Objectives of the Assignment • To comprehensively analyze income and wealth inequality in Albania using microdata from national surveys, with a focus on distributional patterns, poverty, and emerging middle-class trends. • To review and, where appropriate, adapt methodological guidance from UNECE and UN DESA to ensure comparability, replicability, and alignment with international best practice. • To assess inequality trends over time, combining macro-level indicators from the early 1990s with microdata-based analysis from the early 2000s (or before if available) to 2024 (based on data availability). • To calculate and disaggregate monetary poverty rates and middle-class composition and dynamics across time, including transition probabilities and regional characteristics. • To assess vertical and horizontal inequality, identifying disparities not just between income groups, but also across gender, age, geography (urban/rural, north/south, mountain/coastal), education level, and other social markers such as vulnerable groups, ethnicity, socio-economic, etc. • To complement quantitative analysis with 5–10 key informant interviews (KIIs) to contextualize inequality drivers and policy responsiveness, and to triangulate findings with practitioner and community perspectives. • To link inequality to policy-relevant themes, including inclusive growth, social mobility, regional development, and the labor market, providing insights that can inform the SDG 10 agenda, Albania’s EU integration under Cluster 2, and national planning frameworks. • To produce a detailed and well-visualized final report that communicates evidence to policymakers, partners, and the public. Propose an annual inequality tracking framework (indicators, update cycle, data sources, roles) and identify a possible European benchmark applicable to a leading European statistical office or research institute, ideally suitable for a twinning arrangement with INSTAT, to support statistical capacity building in Albania at INSTAT. Scope of Work and Methodology The consultant will utilize publicly available sources and harmonized and anonymized microdata, subject to access agreements and confidentiality protocols, and will map benchmark methodologies to the Albanian data landscape. The consultant will work independently and will also be liaising with INSTAT and other relevant institutions to access and analyze available data sources, applying rigorous statistical and policy-relevant methods. The analysis will cover the following core components: A. Data Sources The consultant will utilize harmonized and anonymized microdata and administrative records, subject to access agreements and confidentiality protocols (including INSTAT’s 3% Census microdata sample for research use, where feasible. Key sources may include (to be determined in discussion with INSTAT): • Household Budget Survey (HBS) • Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS) • Labor Force Survey (LFS), EU-SILC (if accessible) • Population and Housing Census microdata (3% research sample, subject to INSTAT access policies), focusing on housing/amenity variables as proxies for wealth. • Nationally reported indicators from INSTAT, World Bank, and other agencies • NGO/Think-Tank Evidence Scan: Map and review recent outputs from Albanian NGOs and research institutes (e.g., Co-PLAN, Institute for Democracy and Mediation—IDM, Agenda Institute, Partners Albania, Open Data Albania, etc), as well as regional sources (e.g., RCC/Balkan Barometer) and UN agency research (UN Women gender gaps, UNICEF, UNDP), to identify relevant findings and data gaps. • Others as applicable (found online and negotiated access or statistical summary results from INSTAT based on the discussion with them) B. Analytical Components 1. Macro-Level Trends in Inequality and Poverty (1990s–Present) • Review and interpret national indicators of income distribution (Gini coefficient, Palma ratio, top 10% vs bottom 40%, income shares) from early 1990s onward using official statistics and international datasets. • Assess long-term evolution of monetary poverty rates, including the poverty headcount ratio, poverty gap, and severity index. • Contextualize findings against major policy or economic turning points (e.g. 1997 crisis, EU integration, COVID-19 recovery). 2. Microdata-Based Distributional Analysis (as early as available – 2024) • Estimate Gini, Theil, and Atkinson indices using harmonized household microdata (to be accessed in discussion with INSTAT). • Produce income and consumption decile/quintile distributions, inequality decompositions by source of income (labor, remittances, pensions, transfers, self-employment), and trend comparisons over time. • Disaggregate inequality indicators by expenditure and income to assess robustness of findings. • Conduct kernel density and Lorenz curve visualizations to show distributional shifts. • Test wealth proxies using Census housing characteristics (e.g., dwelling quality, durable ownership, amenities) and construct asset/wealth indices (e.g., PCA-based) to complement income/consumption measures. 3. Monetary Poverty Analysis • Recalculate poverty rates over time using both national poverty lines and international thresholds (e.g. $3.65 and $6.85/day, PPP-adjusted). • Explore depth and severity of poverty and identify persistent poverty hotspots. 4. Middle Class Structure and Dynamics • Define thresholds for middle-class identification (e.g., 2x poverty line or vulnerability-adjusted thresholds). • Analyze middle-class expansion or contraction over time and its regional or demographic composition. • Where possible, assess mobility into and out of the middle class using pseudo-panel techniques or transition matrices. • Explore links between middle-class size and macroeconomic variables (e.g. growth, consumption, employment). 5. Horizontal Inequality and Vulnerable Groups Conduct an in-depth disaggregation of inequality, income, wealth, and poverty indicators across the following dimensions: • Sex and Gender o Compare income, consumption, and poverty levels between men and women. o Analyze gender gaps in employment income, household roles, and labor market participation. o Where possible, evaluate the intersection of gender and family status (e.g. single mothers, widows). • Age Groups o Disaggregate income and poverty outcomes by age cohort: children, youth (15–24), prime working-age adults (25–54), and elderly (65+). o Evaluate intergenerational inequality and vulnerability of the elderly population. • Urban–Rural Divide and Regional Disparities o Compare inequality and poverty trends between urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. o Include spatial visualization (maps) to show concentration of deprivation. o Leverage Census-based wealth proxies to map spatial gradients of household assets and amenities. Use small-area estimations or mapped indices (subject to data access) to identify wealth inequality hotspots. o Analyze inequalities across administrative regions and municipalities. o Identify outliers and persistent pockets of inequality and poverty. • Ethnic and Vulnerable Groups o Where possible, disaggregate indicators for Roma and Egyptian populations, Persons with Disabilities (PwDs), and other marginalized communities. o Assess disparities in access to income, housing, education, and employment for these groups. o Use intersectional analysis to combine vulnerability dimensions (e.g. Roma women in rural areas). • Educational Attainment o Examine income and poverty disparities by level of education. o Analyze the income premium associated with each educational level, and its evolution over time. • Household Type and Structure o Evaluate inequality by household composition (e.g. single-headed households, large families, elderly-only households). o Explore links between household dependency ratios and poverty incidence. 6. Policy Implications and Alignment with National and EU Frameworks • Benchmark Albania’s inequality profile against peer countries and EU averages. • Identify policy gaps and opportunities in taxation, social transfers, labor inclusion, and regional development. • Align findings with SDG 10 targets and EU Cluster 2 (social policy, labor market integration, and social cohesion). • Develop data-driven policy recommendations, emphasizing inclusive growth and social mobility. 7. Sustainability, Annual Tracking, and Twinning • Design a light-touch annual update protocol (indicator list, data refresh calendar, versioning). • Specify institutional roles (INSTAT, UNRCO) and QA steps for repeatability. • Identify 1–2 potential European partner institutions for a twinning arrangement and outline a collaboration concept (knowledge exchange, peer review, staff shadowing, short methods clinics). C. Qualitative Component (Key Informant Interviews) • Sampling & coverage: Conduct 5–10 KIIs across policy, statistics, civil society, and practitioner perspectives. Focus on actors in the civil society/NGOs working with Roma/Egyptian communities and PwDs; research institutes/think tanks (e.g., Co-PLAN, IDM, Agenda Institute, Partners Albania, Open Data Albania); municipality outreach programs, etc. • Instruments: Prepare a short, semi-structured Interview Guide aligned to the analytical questions (inequality drivers, regional disparities, targeting/exclusion errors, informality, gender/age dimensions, middle-class mobility, policy options). • Fieldwork: Remote interviews preferred; obtain informed consent; record anonymized notes; no personally identifying information in outputs. • Integration: Use KIIs to triangulate empirical results, explain outliers, and refine policy recommendations; summarize insights in an annex. Qualifications/special skillsAdvanced university degree in Economics, Development Studies, Social Sciences, or related field is required. At least 5 years of professional experience inin inequality, poverty, or household-level analysis is required. Proven track record with microdata (esp. HBS, LSMS, SILC, or LFS) is required. Proficiency in Stata, R, or Python for statistical analysis is required. Familiarity with Albania’s development context and EU social indicators is required. Excellent writing and data visualization skills is required. LanguagesEnglish and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. Fluency in English is required for this post. Additional InformationBudget and Payment Schedule Total Budget: USD 7,000 Payment Schedule: o USD 4,000 upon submission and acceptance of Deliverable 2 (Draft Analytical Report) o USD 3,000 upon submission and acceptance of Deliverable 5 and 6 (Policy Brief and Final Outputs) Payments will be made upon certification of satisfactory completion of deliverables by the UN RCO and INSTAT. Application Requirements Interested candidates should submit: • An updated Personal History Form outlining relevant experience; • A brief motivation letter (max 1 page); • A proposed daily rate in ALL (all-inclusive). No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.