International Consultant to Analyze Structural Transformation in Albania

Result of ServiceExpected Deliverables 1. Inception Report: Methodology, data access strategy, proposed analytical framework 2. Draft Analytical Report: Sectoral diagnostics, shift-share and productivity analysis, trade/export lens 3. Final Analytical Report: Revised version including policy recommendations and an executive summary 4. Presentation Deck: Visual summary of findings for stakeholders and public use 5. Policy Brief (2–3 pages): Targeted synthesis for policymakers and EU partners All deliverables must include clear tables, graphs, and maps where appropriate. Duration and Timeline Total Duration: 3 months (October – December 2025) Indicative Timeline: • Month 1: Inception, data access, macro-trend review • Month 2: Sectoral analysis and draft report (using published summary data) • Month 3: Finalization, policy brief, stakeholder presentation Reporting The consultant will report to the Economist of the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office. Technical inputs may be provided by UNDP, UNIDO, or other partners engaged in economic governance and competitiveness. Remuneration and Payment Schedule Total Remuneration: USD 5,000 (all-inclusive) Payment Schedule: • USD 3,000 upon submission and acceptance of the Draft Analytical Report (Deliverable 2) • USD 2,000 upon submission and acceptance of the Final Analytical Report and Policy Brief (Deliverables 3 & 5) Payments will be certified by the UN RCO and INSTAT upon satisfactory completion of deliverables. Preferred Currency of Offer: United States Dollars (US$). Work LocationTirana, Albania Expected duration20 Oct - 20 Dec 2025 Duties and ResponsibilitiesBackground Despite steady economic growth, Albania has experienced limited structural transformation over the past 25–30 years. Despite recent efforts to promote transformation, the economy continues to be reliant on agriculture, low-end services, and construction, with minimal diversification into high value-added sectors. While there are recent signs of sectoral shifts, the underlying dynamics of structural transformation—including within-sector productivity gains and cross-sector labor and capital reallocation—remain poorly understood in both public discourse and policymaking. This assignment aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Albania’s sectoral structure and identify actionable opportunities to enhance economic complexity and long-term competitiveness. The work will support SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and transition goals in jobs, food systems, and energy. It also directly supports Albania’s EU accession process, particularly in Chapters 20–22 related to industrial policy, enterprise development, and trade. Objectives of the Assignment • Provide a comprehensive diagnostic of Albania’s sectoral composition and transformation over the last 30 – 35 years. • Analyze trends in employment, value added, productivity, and job quality across major sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, services, construction, energy) and their subsectors • Assess the export potential and economic complexity of emerging sectors, and their role in raising productivity and resilience. • Examine the reallocation of labor and capital across sectors, as well as productivity improvements within sectors. • Identify barriers and enabling factors for transformation, with policy-relevant insights for diversification, enterprise upgrading, and trade strategy. • Ensure evidence is disaggregated by geography, firm size, age, gender, etc where data allow, promoting deeper understanding. Scope of Work and Methodology The consultant will utilize harmonized and summarized publicly available data sources (with the main source being online provided data of INSTAT) and will review methodological approaches used by the World Bank and UN DESA to ensure alignment and applicability. The analysis will cover the following core components: A. Data Sources The consultant will utilize harmonized and summarized publicly available data sources. Key sources may include: • Structural Business Survey (SBS) and Economic Enterprises Census: Sectoral value added, turnover, employment by firm size and activity • Agricultural Census and Farm Structure Surveys (if available): Sector productivity, diversification, land and labor use • External trade data (INSTAT): Exports by product and country, trade concentration, RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) • Supply and Use tables (INSTAT) • World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI), World Input-Output Database (WIOD), UNIDO INDSTAT, and ILOSTAT for cross-country benchmarking. • Bank of Albania and Ministry of Finance publications for macroeconomic context (FDI, credit, investment). • OECD and Eurostat structural business and trade indicators, where comparable. • Methodological guidance and analytical notes from the World Bank and UN DESA on structural transformation and productivity decomposition. B. Analytical Workstreams 1. Descriptive Sectoral Overview (1990s–2024): o Evolution of sectoral shares in GDP, employment, and exports. o Identification of structural stagnation or transformation inflection points (e.g., post-2008, post-COVID, recent tourism or ICT growth). o Benchmark Albania against peer countries in the region. 2. Labor and Capital Reallocation (if available): o Shift-share analysis to separate productivity growth into:  Within-sector improvements (e.g., ICT productivity)  Between-sector shifts (e.g., labor from agriculture to services) o Map capital investment patterns by sector. o Identify bottlenecks (skills, financing, energy, logistics). 3. Export and Transformation Nexus: o Identify sectors with high value-add per worker/output and export intensity. o Use trade data to construct RCA indices and compare with economic complexity analyses. o Draw lessons from successful structural transformers (e.g., North Macedonia in automotive components, Vietnam in electronics, Baltic countries in services exports). 4. Inclusive Transformation (if available): o Disaggregate employment shifts by sex, age cohort, education level, and region. o Examine whether transformation is translating into decent jobs (formal, productive, stable). o Highlight dynamics for vulnerable groups and youth. 5. Policy Alignment and Enablers: o Relate findings to SDG 8 targets, EU Chapters 20–22, and Albania’s national strategies (e.g., NSDI, industrial policy, SME support). o Identify levers for promoting transformation: FDI quality, SME upgrading, cluster development, green and digital transitions. Qualifications/special skillsAt least a master's degree in economics, Development Studies, Statistics, or related fields is required. A minimum of 5 years of professional experience is required. Professional or academic (postgraduate) experience in structural transformation, industrial policy, or productivity analysis is required. Experience with microdata and firm-level or household surveys (HBS, LFS, SBS) is required. Proficiency in Stata, R, or Python for econometric and decomposition techniques is required. Familiarity with Albania’s development and EU accession context is required. LanguagesEnglish and French are the two working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. Fluency in English is required for this post. Additional InformationNot available. No FeeTHE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.