The census disaggregated data is vital for informing evidence-based decision making. The 2022 Population and Housing Census results are essential in monitoring of the national development agenda including the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is against this background that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) intends to produce a migration monograph that will provide more analysed information on migration and cater for increased demand for statistics for decision making and other statistical purposes. The census disaggregated data is vital for informing evidence-based decision making. The 2022 Population and Housing Census results are essential in monitoring of the national development agenda including the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It is against this background that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) intends to produce a migration monograph that will provide more analysed information on migration and cater for increased demand for statistics for decision making and other statistical purposes.
Organizational Department / Unit: Programme Coordination Unit
The consultant will work together with the NBS and OCGS technical team in the production of the monograph. The team will work around specific themes related to the anticipated output i.e Migration and Urbanization Monograph. The consultant will also be responsible for the compilation of the Labour Migration component produced by the International Labour Organization (ILO) into the monograph to produce one document. To ensure quality and strengthen analytical capacity, the team will include a team-lead, government counterparts, statisticians or demographer from NBS or OCGS and an intern. The analytical phase will begin with an orientation workshop, where authors will receive task briefings, gather necessary resources (including data), and develop annotated outlines and initial drafts of their monograph or part of the monograph. To maintain quality and alignment with sector policies and programs, professional review teams will assess the draft at a specific stage of the production process.
An analytical team will be assembled to produce the Migration and Urbanization Monograph, comprising six core members: a team leader, a representative from relevant Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs), a member from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and/or the Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS), Zanzibar, lecturer from Higher Learning institutions, retired officer from NBS and/or OCGS with experience in statistics or demography and an intern. To strengthen capacity within NBS and OCGS, the team will receive support from two IT personnel. Additionally, two GIS experts from NBS and/or OCGS will be dedicated to produce maps for the monograph.
Centre of operation will be at the NBS Headquarters and work will be arranged in phases. However, the working team will not be stationed at NBS but will work through correspondence. There will be five phases to accomplish the production of Migration and Urbanisation Monograph. The phases will include: -
i. Inception phase
ii. Data Review and Analysis
iii. Chapter Development and Drafting
iv. Stakeholders Review and Validation; and
v. Finalization and Dissemination.
Inception Phase
Objective: To lay the groundwork, refine the scope, and develop a comprehensive work plan for the subsequent phases.
Key Activities:
i. Conduct an initial review of relevant background materials (2022 PHC data, previous census and surveys reports, policies, etc.);
ii. Engage with key stakeholders, including NBS, OCGS, ILO and IOM, to clarify objectives, scope, and expected deliverables;
iii. Develop an inception report outlining the work plan, methodology, key deliverables, and a timeline for each stage of the consultancy; and
iv. Identify and propose a thematic structure for the monograph (e.g., internal migration, international migration, labour migration, urbanization, and policy implications).
Deliverables:
Inception report, including detailed work plan, methodology, proposed thematic structure, timeline and consultation outcomes.
Data Review and Analysis
Objective: To conduct a comprehensive review and analysis of the 2022 PHC migration data.
Key Activities:
i. Extract and clean migration-related data from the 2022 PHC dataset;
ii. Identify data gaps, inconsistencies, or limitations and propose mitigation measures;
iii. Conduct a preliminary analysis of migration trends, disaggregated by key demographic variables (age, gender, location, education, marital, citizenship, etc.); and
iv. Validate findings with NBS, OCGS, and other stakeholders.
Deliverables:
i. Data review and analysis report, including data tables, key trends, and preliminary visualizations/presentations.
ii. List of identified data gaps and proposed measures to address them.
Chapter Development and Drafting
Objective: To develop detailed thematic chapters of the Migration and Urbanization Monograph.
Key Activities:
i. Draft content for each thematic chapter, including narrative analysis, graphics, and data visualizations/presentations;
ii. Incorporate case studies, policy implications, and insights from stakeholder consultations;
iii. Submit initial drafts of all chapters for review by NBS, OCGS, IOM, ILO and other key stakeholders; and
iv. Revise drafts based on feedback from stakeholders.
Thematic Chapters Includes:
i. Overview of the 2022 Population and Housing Census
ii. Introduction to migration concepts, the background of census migration data, relevant census questions and definitions.
iii. Internal migration,
iv. International migration, the levels, trends and demographics, including gender, of Tanzanians moving across borders.
v. Internal labour migration
vi. International labour migration,
vii. Urbanization; trends, the history of urbanization and the relationship between migration and urbanization.
viii. Policy implications of the findings,
Deliverables:
i. First draft of all chapters of the Migration and Urbanisation Monograph.
ii. Revised chapters incorporating stakeholder feedback.
Stakeholder Review and Validation
Objective: To validate the content of the monograph with stakeholders and ensure alignment with policy and strategic priorities.
Key Activities:
i. Organize a stakeholder review workshop to present draft chapters for validation, this will be done by NBS, OCGS, IOM and ILO;
ii. Collect feedback and recommendations from stakeholders;
iii. Revise the draft chapters based on stakeholder input; and
iv. Ensure the monograph aligns with national development priorities and policies.
Deliverables:
i. Validation workshop report, including participant feedback and key recommendations.
ii. Final draft of the Migration and Urbanization Monograph, incorporating inputs from stakeholders.
Finalization and Dissemination
Objective: To finalize the monograph, prepare dissemination kit, and support the launch and distribution process.
Key Activities:
i. Finalize the migration monograph, ensuring accuracy, consistency, and quality;
ii. Design and format the final monograph, including graphics, infographics, and layout;
iii. Prepare a policy brief summarizing key findings and recommendations; and
iv. Develop a dissemination strategy and support the launch event.
Deliverables:
i. Final, formatted Migration and Urbanization Monograph ready for publication (Printing or posting to the website).
ii. Policy brief highlighting key findings and policy recommendations.
iii. Dissemination plan and support for the launch event.
Expected Deliverables of the Monograph
i. Migration and Urbanization Report
ii. Popular report (results highlights)
iii. Policy Brief
iv. Factsheet (summary of facts and figures)
v. Analytical spreadsheets/models
In order to enhance capacity within the country, national consultants will be given priority. Government MDAs will be requested by NBS and OCGS to release a qualified staff to work with NBS and OCGS to write the report. Released staff will be required to attend all workshops and continue with other members through correspondence. Likewise, the Statistician General and Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar will select among their staff to join the team. As part of capacity building, statistical or demographic training institutions in the country will be requested to choose students (preferably Masters or PhD) to join the teams.
REVIEW TEAM
The consultant will work closely with the Census Technical Advisor and the technical committee on migration data. The technical committee will be convened by the National Bureau of Statistics to review the draft report. Workshop and review meetings will be conducted to ensure a structured development process for the Migration and Urbanization Monograph.
6. Performance indicators for the evaluation of results
The consultant is expected to observe the following:
i. Provide a comprehensive but compact literature review highlighting the state of research and knowledge (including available or emerging methodologies), and policy considerations in the thematic area. Give due consideration to past and current government policy frameworks and global development goals.
ii. Develop or adopt a simple (but not simplistic) population and development theoretical or analytical framework to ensure policy orientation and user friendly.
iii. Define different migration-related sub-populations for estimation, in alignment with international, regional, and national definitions.
iv. Document any discrepancies.
v. Review and refine counting rules for each population definition, in consultation with thematic experts in the review team, and documentation of limitations.
vi. Develop and review a tabulation plan to translate the raw data from the sixth Post-Union Population and Housing Census 2022 dataset into a structured format for a monograph, including organizing consultation sessions between lead author and IOM project team.
vii. Conduct exploratory analysis, identify descriptive indicators, and possible lines of secondary analysis in coordination with the review team.
viii. Identify and develop methodology for inclusion of sources of administrative data which may complement the exercise.
ix. Provide written assessment of administrative data and develop recommendations for their improvement to support the production of statistics in future.
x. Describe clearly the methods and procedures used. These methods must be internationally accepted or recommended
xi. Develop or adopt a spatial-temporal framework that will enable analysis of trends of the key indicators at regional level.
xii. Highlight aspects of the monograph relevant to achievement of the third National Five-year Development Plan 2021/2022 – 2025/2026 (FYDP III) and Zanzibar Development Plan 2021/2022 – 2025/2026 (ZADEP) strategies in a policy brief
xiii. Provide a comparative analysis of Tanzania and selected countries (in East Africa, Africa, other developing countries, and developed countries).
xiv. Provide adequate citations of all resources and published materials used in the monograph, according to internationally accepted conventions. The author is encouraged to use peer-reviewed material and published policy documents.
xv. Make adequate reference to the United Nations Principles and Recommendations for the Population and Housing Census, especially for the 2020 round;
xvi. Familiarize with and make adequate reference to past censuses methodology in Tanzania;
xvii. Consultant has overall responsibility over other team members.
xviii. Organize document writing sessions with key stakeholders to review and edit the draft monograph; and
xix. Develop communication material on the monograph to be disseminated including via TV and radio spots, leveraging various media channels.
Education
- At least a master’s degree in either demography, statistics, IT (with experience on demographic analysis) and econometrics Experience
- At least 10 years experience in research and/or data analysis in the field of demography, statistics or other social sciences Skills
- Adequate knowledgeable of the Tanzania context, including demographic, social and economic dynamics at national and sub-national levels
- Good analytical and report writing skills especially analysis of census data and/or large (national) scale surveys
- Previous experience working on the production of national statistics with national statistical offices is strongly preferred
- Knowledge of census-taking
- Previous participation in census data analysis will be an added advantage; and
- Familiarity with statistical processing software or packages and Microsoft application (Word and Excel) Languages
- English & Swahili Travel required
- Yes Required Competencies IOM’s competency framework can be found at this link. Competencies will be assessed during the selection process. Values - all IOM staff members must abide by and demonstrate these three values:
- Inclusion and respect for diversity: Respects and promotes individual and cultural differences. Encourages diversity and inclusion.
- Integrity and transparency: Maintains high ethical standards and acts in a manner consistent with organizational principles/rules and standards of conduct.
- English & Swahili Travel required
- Professionalism: Demonstrates ability to work in a composed, competent and committed manner and exercises careful judgment in meeting day-to-day challenges.
- Courage: Demonstrates willingness to take a stand on issues of importance.
- At least 10 years experience in research and/or data analysis in the field of demography, statistics or other social sciences Skills
- Empathy: Shows compassion for others, makes people feel safe, respected and fairly treated. Core Competencies – behavioural indicators
- Teamwork: Develops and promotes effective collaboration within and across units to achieve shared goals and optimize results.