Consultant organization for Assessing Domestic Trade Costs and the Role of Agri-Food Enterprises in Nepal’s Agricultural Transformation

Terms of Reference (ToR) for Assessing Domestic Trade Costs and the Role of Agri-Food Enterprises in Nepal’s Agricultural Transformation

1. Background

The Agricultural Transformation and Market Integration (ATMI-II) project aims to strengthen government capacity, integrate environmental and climate considerations into policy processes, and assess the impacts of market integration on agri-food systems across ASEAN and BIMSTEC countries. Nepal is one of the project’s priority countries, where agricultural transformation is central to livelihoods and food security. Despite its importance, Nepal’s agri-food system faces persistent structural challenges. Limited connectivity between production zones and domestic or border markets leads to high domestic trade costs, reducing competitiveness and restricting the smooth movement of agricultural commodities. At the same time, as part of agri-food system transformation agri-food enterprises, ranging from processors and traders to midstream logistics and retail actors, are playing an increasingly significant role in transforming Nepal’s food system. However, their evolution, contribution to agricultural transformation, and the extent of women’s participation remain inadequately understood.

To address these evidence gaps, IFPRI, under ATMI-II, is commissioning a comprehensive study to generate robust insights on:

1. The time and cost associated with agricultural trade flows within Nepal, and

2. The dynamics of agri-food enterprises, including their role in employment, agricultural transformation, and gender inclusion.

The findings will support evidence-based decision-making for the Government of Nepal and contribute to regional dialogue and coordination within the BIMSTEC Secretariat, helping to advance a more efficient, inclusive, and market-responsive agri-food system.

2. Objective of the Assignment

Overall Objective

The overall objective is to diagnose key constraints in Nepal's agricultural trade logistics and analyze the role of agri-food enterprise in driving agriculture transformation in Nepal.

Specific Objectives

· To calculate the estimated domestic trade time and distances from key agricultural production zones to major ports/markets using Open-Source Routing Machine (OSRM).

· To estimate the domestic trade cost by combining OSRM-based outputs with secondary data on transport tariffs, fuel prices, and other logistical overheads.

· To map and analyze the market spread and distance relationship between production centers and ports/major trade hubs, identifying areas with the highest logistical barriers.

· To understand the transformation of food enterprises and the retail sector by comparing data across different rounds of the Nepal Living Standard Survey (NLSS) and the Nepal Industrial Survey.

· To analyze the role of women in the management, employment, and ownership of food enterprises using disaggregated data from NLSS and NIS.

· Provide actionable recommendations for improving market access, value chain upgrading, and inclusive agricultural transformation.

3. Scope of Work

The selected firm/institution will carry out two major, interconnected components:

Component 1: Domestic Trade Cost and Time Estimation (Port-level, OSRM)

This task will focus on quantifying the spatial and logistical trade costs faced by Nepal's agri-allied sector.

I. Data Acquisition: Collect secondary data on: (a) coordinates of major agricultural production zones and markets/ports (e.g., specific customs points on the India/China border); (b) road network data (if not using a fully hosted OSRM instance); and (c) key components of transport costs.

II. OSRM Application: Systematically use the OSRM tool to generate a matrix of optimal travel times and distances between the selected origin and destination points.

III. Cost Modeling: Develop a robust model to convert the OSRM time and distance outputs into a monetary cost estimate (domestic trade cost) using collected tariff/secondary data.

Component 2: Analysis of Agri-Food Enterprise Dynamics in Agriculture Transformation

This task will focus on the quantitative analysis of structural change and enterprise dynamics in the food systems transformation.

I. Data Analysis (NLSS & NIS): Apply econometric and descriptive statistical methods to the multiple rounds of NLSS and NIS to:

· Track changes in the structure of food enterprises and the retail sector (size, employment, location, value addition).

· Explore how household occupation in the non-farm and the agricultural sector have evolved over time.

· Disaggregate data by gender to quantify women's participation (ownership, decision-making, wages, labor share) in different types of food enterprises.

II. Synthesis: Synthesize findings on agri-food enterprise transformation, and women's role to formulate evidence-based policy insights.

4. Deliverables

The following deliverables are expected from institutions/firms upon the completion of the respective tasks:

S.No.

Deliverable

Linked Task

Format

Timeline

Inception Phase

1

Inception Report

Both

Detailed methodology, finalized work plan, and NLSS/NIS data cleaning plan.

15-Jan-26

Task 1 Deliverables

2

OSRM Travel Matrix & Cost Model

Task 1

Raw data file (e.g., Excel/CSV) containing OSRM-generated time/distance matrix and the cost conversion model/formulae.

30-May-26

3

Trade Cost and Time Analysis Report

Task 1

Technical report detailing domestic trade cost estimations, and market spread analysis.

30-May-26

Task 2 Deliverables

4

Agri-food Enterprise Transformation Data Analysis

Task 2

Statistical report or Annexure presenting the results of the NLSS and NIS data analysis on enterprise transformation (including disaggregated tables).

15-Jun-26

Final Products

5

Draft Final Report

Both

Comprehensive report integrating the findings from Task 1 (Trade Costs) and Enterprise Transformation).

30-Jul-26

6

Final Report

Both

Comprehensive report integrating comments received on the Draft Final Report

15-Sep-26

5. Institutional Qualifications

Institutions/Firms applying for this assignment must demonstrate the following:

· Minimum 15 years of experience conducting economic, agricultural, spatial, or value-chain research.

· Proven work in trade, logistics, agriculture, or rural enterprise analysis.

· Experience working with national statistical datasets (NLSS, NIS or similar).

· Experience in GIS and routing/mobility analysis preferred.

· Demonstrated experience collaborating with CGIAR centers or similar international research organizations.

· Proven experience working with government stakeholders in Nepal.

· The institution/firm must be based in Nepal and legally registered with the relevant government authorities.

6. Proposal Submission Requirements

Interested institutions must submit:

A. Technical Proposal

· Understanding of assignment

· Detailed methodology

· Work plan & team structure